# Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 60 – 93 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions run down Hawthorn._

Half time: 34 – 57 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 39% / Brisbane Lions 61% · MCG · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Connor Macdonald (14' ×3), Josh Weddle (17'), Blake Hardwick (28'), Conor Nash (72'), Jack Ginnivan (80' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Moore (81') · Brisbane Lions: Logan Morris (8' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Callum Ah Chee (36' ×4), Charlie Cameron (53' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Levi Ashcroft (59'), Cam Rayner (67' ×2), Will Ashcroft (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 61% | Won |
| Hawthorn | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.2 predicted → 33 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Hawthorn 60–93 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 11 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ninety-three points built on contested footy and pressure, sixty from control and clean disposal. That's the shape of what happened at the MCG, and it explains why Brisbane Lions walked out 33 points clear of Hawthorn.

Hawthorn actually led at quarter time, 19 to 15, playing the patient game and looking the tidier side early. Then the second term arrived and the game turned: by half time Brisbane led 57 to 34, a swing that came almost entirely in that quarter. From there it became a matter of managing the margin. Three-quarter time read 71-50 to Brisbane, and the final siren sounded on 93-60. Brisbane's grip loosened slightly in the third term, when Hawthorn actually won the quarter, but the buffer built in the second term was too big to chase down.

The stat sheet tells you exactly how Brisbane did it. They won contested possession 130 to 112 and clearances 41 to 24, the kind of gap that lets a team dictate terms rather than react to them. They tackled harder too, 59 to 36, which is why Hawthorn's disposal efficiency sat at a modest 72.1% against Brisbane's 78.0%. Brisbane simply made Hawthorn work harder for worse ball. Total disposals were close, 369 to 366, and marks were dead level at 110 apiece, so it wasn't a case of Brisbane flooding the ball forward more often. Inside 50s were similarly tight, 53 to 50 in Brisbane's favour. The difference was what each side did once they got there.

Hawthorn's counters came from areas that look good on paper but don't win you the footy on their own. They won hit-outs 50 to 29, a comfortable margin at the ruck contest, and were sharper going forward with 16 marks inside 50 to Brisbane's 11. Both are real advantages. Neither matters much if you can't win first use of the ball, and Hawthorn's 24 clearances against Brisbane's 41 tells you who actually had it. Brisbane also won the intercept count, 64 to 71 in Hawthorn's favour, oddly enough, one of the few clean wins Hawthorn can point to across the whole game.

Going in, the ratings had Hawthorn ahead everywhere that supposedly counts: midfield 1104 to 1078, forwards 1103 to 973, defence 1069 to 1022, ruck 1118 to 1064. On paper this was Hawthorn's game to control. On the day, Brisbane's willingness to win the contested ball and lay the extra tackle flipped every one of those edges into irrelevance.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 19 | 15 | 16 | 10 | 60 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15 | 42 | 14 | 22 | 93 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| **369** | Disposals | 366 |
| 112 | Contested poss. | **130** |
| 24 | Clearances | **41** |
| 50 | Inside 50s | **53** |
| 110 | Marks | 110 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 36 | Tackles | **59** |
| **50** | Hit-outs | 29 |
| **71** | Intercepts | 64 |
| 72.1% | Disposal eff. | **78.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.2 but the actual margin was 33 points. Brisbane Lions led 34–57 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 33. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 174.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.80 (edge +25.2%) — model probability 60.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +25.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 0 · Predicted total: 164

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 90 · 70 | 88 · 76 |
| Goal Assists | 4.4/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 82/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.7/g | 18.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.4/g | 9.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 66.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 27 · 28 | 28 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 145/g | 162/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.8/g | 24.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.1% | 67.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 23 · 12 | 12 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 126/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.6/g | 12.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.6% | 79.7% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.38/g (lg 4.46) -2% · Key Forwards 3.33/g (lg 3.59) -7% · Midfielders 2.14/g (lg 2.39) -10%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.5/g (lg 1.31) +15% · Midfielders 2.43/g (lg 2.39) +2% · Key Forwards 3.55/g (lg 3.59) -1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 23 in 7g | 25/10g (1·1·0·2·2·6·3·4·3·3) | 23/12g | 215/113g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 88% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 20 in 10g | 20/10g (1·2·3·0·1·3·3·2·2·3) | 10/6g | 34/27g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 17 in 10g | 17/10g (0·3·2·1·0·2·1·3·2·3) | 0/0g | 25/13g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (0·2·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·3) | 0/9g | 11/71g | 36% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (2·3·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 7/4g | 46/46g | 74% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 9 in 9g | 11/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·2·2·1·2) | 4/4g | 56/42g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/10g | 31/73g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 6/19g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 22/32g | 56% | — | 🏉 14' 45' 52' |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 11/35g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 9/22g | 38% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/23g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 9/46g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/20g | 18% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 20/53g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/23g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 10/29g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 6/43g | 6% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/16g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/22g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/41g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/18g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 20 in 10g | 20/10g (1·2·1·1·5·2·4·0·3·1) | 19/8g | 32/19g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 17 in 10g | 17/10g (4·1·1·3·3·0·3·0·1·1) | 3/7g | 14/14g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 73% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 16 in 9g | 18/10g (2·1·3·1·2·4·0·2·0·3) | 2/1g | 6/4g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 11' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (1·3·0·1·2·0·1·3·1·1) | 0/4g | 10/12g | 64% | — | 🏉 36' 49' 77' 71' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·2·2·0·0·3·0) | 13/8g | 9/16g | 50% | — | 🏉 67' 64' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 8 in 8g | 11/10g (2·1·1·3·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 20/13g | 37/26g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' 55' 56' |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 5 in 4g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·4) | 0/8g | 2/15g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 14/18g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/9g | 5/17g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 8/17g | 11/29g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 40% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/14g | 15/22g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/6g | 26% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 7/17g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/4g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Deven Robertson | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/20g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Payne | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 0 in 5g | 12/10g (3·2·2·1·4·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 8/4g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/15g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 25.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 23 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 23.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 29 ✗ |
| James Worpel | 22.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 23 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 20.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 17 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 19.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 20 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Changkuoth Jiath | 17.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 21 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 13 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.89 | 64% | 32 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.92 | 63% | 33 ✗ |
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.86 | 65% | 26 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 24 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 24.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 21 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 20.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 22 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 19.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 13 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 65% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)