AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.2 but the actual margin was 33 points. Brisbane Lions led 34–57 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 33. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 174.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
39%
Brisbane Lions
61%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Hawthorn are far from out of this at 39%. Hawthorn are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Brisbane Lions counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 38-point ELO rating advantage (1561 vs 1523).
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @2.80
Winner ✓
Edge
+25.2%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -13.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+25.2%
Total Points
Under 174.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W W L L L | 77.7 |
Brisbane Lions | W W L L L | 75.5 |
Avg Conceded
93.7
Hawthorn
71.8
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
-7.3
Hawthorn
-1.6
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
376.8
Hawthorn
366.3
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.7
Hawthorn
56.5
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: +0.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.41
Team Effectiveness
-0.07
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.