# Geelong Cats v Western Bulldogs — AFL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 127 – 113 Western Bulldogs

_Geelong Cats pounce on Western Bulldogs._

Half time: 70 – 45 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 75% / Western Bulldogs 25% · GMHBA Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Mark Blicavs (9'), Shaun Mannagh (16' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tyson Stengle (22' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (27' ×5), Jeremy Cameron (38' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Oliver Henry (42' Tipped ⚡), Tom Atkins (57'), Max Holmes (86'), Oliver Dempsey (80' Tipped ⚡) · Western Bulldogs: Ed Richards (5' ×2 1st), Rhylee West (17' Tipped ⚡), Sam Davidson (25'), Laitham Vandermeer (29' ×2), Aaron Naughton (33' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Tim English (76'), Buku Khamis (81'), Matthew Kennedy (92' ×3), Joel Freijah (103')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 75% | Won |
| Western Bulldogs | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.0 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Western Bulldogs Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 127–113 Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 11 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

A hundred and six marks to 75. That's the number that decided this one, and it's how Geelong Cats beat Western Bulldogs 127-113 at GMHBA Stadium despite getting beaten in almost every contested category that's supposed to matter.

Look at the guts of the stat sheet and you'd think the Bulldogs won. They had 148 contested possessions to 135, took the clearance count 51-42, and pushed forward more often too, 56 inside 50s to Geelong's 51. By the usual measures, that's a dominant midfield performance, and it matches the pre-match read: the Bulldogs went in rated stronger in midfield, forwards, defence and ruck across the board.

None of it mattered much, because Geelong turned their footy into points and the Bulldogs turned theirs into wasted trips forward. Fifteen marks inside 50 against 10 tells that story on its own, but the overall marking gap, 106 to 75, is the real headline. Geelong were clunking it clean all day while the Bulldogs were scrapping for the ball and not always doing much with it once they won it.

The scoreboard backs that in. Geelong trailed 31-34 at quarter time, then flipped it completely, outscoring the Bulldogs by close to four goals to one in the second term to lead 70-45 at the half. That's the passage that broke the game open, and the Bulldogs never got the margin back under 10 points again. Three-quarter time had it at 101-91, and Geelong closed it out from there, 127-113 the final tally.

Individually there wasn't a name given to hang it on, but the team numbers do the job. Geelong's disposal efficiency actually sat a touch below the Bulldogs, 72.0% to 73.3%, and Western Bulldogs edged the intercept count too, well no, Geelong actually had more there, 54 to 49, which lines up with a side that defends its own forward entries better than it wins the ball in the middle.

For the Bulldogs, the frustration will be obvious. They had more of the ball, 344 disposals is only 12 short of Geelong's 356, they won more clearances and more hit-outs, 53-50, and they went inside 50 more often. All that pressure and it still came out a 14-point loss, because when it got there they only marked it 10 times against Geelong's 15. Territory without conversion is just a long walk back the other way.

Alphr's model had Geelong Cats as 75% favourites, tipping them by 9 points on a combined total of 180. The pick landed, and comfortably, with Geelong winning by 14. The total blew that prediction away though, 240 points scored against the 180 forecast, a 60-point overshoot that says more about how open this one was than anything else on the stat sheet. All three model picks hit for the match, and on a day where the underdog won nearly every possession count that's supposed to count, the side that marked the ball took the four points.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 31 | 39 | 31 | 26 | 127 |
| Western Bulldogs | 34 | 11 | 46 | 22 | 113 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **356** | Disposals | 344 |
| 135 | Contested poss. | **148** |
| 42 | Clearances | **51** |
| 51 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| **106** | Marks | 75 |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| **78** | Tackles | 76 |
| 50 | Hit-outs | **53** |
| **54** | Intercepts | 49 |
| 72.0% | Disposal eff. | **73.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 9.0 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 240 points came in 60 points higher than the predicted 180. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.83 (edge +20.6%) — model probability 75.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 174.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 9 · Predicted total: 180

### H2H History (Last 5) — Geelong Cats lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Geelong Cats | 131 – 56 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R19 | Geelong Cats | 48 – 95 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R4 | Western Bulldogs | 91 – 95 | Geelong Cats |
| 2023 | R24 | Geelong Cats | 79 – 104 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R12 | Western Bulldogs | 75 – 97 | Geelong Cats |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 95 · 76 | 74 · 83 |
| Goal Assists | 5.5/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 91/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.1/g | 15.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.6/g | 7.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.1% | 68.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 41 · 25 | 59 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 6.2/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 182/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.3/g | 31.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.3/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.2% | 72.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 13 | 19 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.4/g | 10.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.5% | 81.3% |

**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.35) +0% · Rucks 0.46/g (lg 0.5) -8% · Key Forwards 3.25/g (lg 3.58) -9%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.81/g (lg 3.58) +6% · Rucks 0.5/g (lg 0.5) +0% · Forwards 4.41/g (lg 4.49) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 27 in 10g | 27/10g (4·1·1·1·4·2·4·1·2·7) | 47/16g | 93/37g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 45' 78' 102' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 17 in 10g | 17/10g (2·2·1·0·2·2·2·2·2·2) | 3/3g | 15/16g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (3·2·0·2·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 11/7g | 56/28g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' 100' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (3·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·1·1) | 7/6g | 33/21g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 9 in 7g | 14/10g (1·3·1·1·0·3·0·2·2·1) | 0/1g | 6/7g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 73' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 6/7g | 40/37g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 15/11g | 73% | — | 🏉 27' 63' 84' 90' 95' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/16g | 19/89g | 38% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 11/31g | 44% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 2 in 8g | 7/10g (3·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 38/47g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 8/11g | 25/50g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/28g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ted Clohesy | FWD | 2 in 6g | 2/9g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 8/45g | 12% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/44g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Duncan | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 10/17g | 57/91g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 5/38g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 13/53g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jed Bews | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 6/57g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/60g | 4% | — | — |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 18 in 10g | 18/10g (0·1·1·1·1·3·3·2·2·4) | 2/5g | 0/3g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 16 in 10g | 16/10g (3·0·1·1·3·3·1·3·0·1) | 14/11g | 6/5g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' 67' 87' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (0·0·2·0·1·2·2·0·3·1) | 3/7g | 1/1g | 54% | — | 🏉 92' 97' 101' |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 10 in 9g | 10/10g (0·2·1·1·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (2·0·1·2·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·2) | 8/10g | 3/4g | 42% | — | 🏉 5' 70' |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 8 in 8g | 9/10g (0·1·3·1·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 44% | — | 🏉 29' 104' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 8 in 5g | 14/10g (2·2·0·1·1·2·0·3·1·2) | 11/16g | 5/9g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·3) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | James Harmes | MID | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·4·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/5g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 33% | — | 🏉 103' |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0·0) | 4/9g | 3/4g | 38% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 8/14g | 3/7g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 0/5g | 30% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 3/6g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 8/11g | 5/5g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Oskar Baker | FWD | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Duryea | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 28.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 33 ✗ |
| Max Holmes | 22.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 33 ✗ |
| Tom Stewart | 20.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 21 ✗ |
| Lawson Humphries | 19.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 19 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers | 19.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 23 ✗ |
| Zach Guthrie | 18.5 | $1.77 | 56% | 17 ✓ |
| Mitch Duncan ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 11 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 17.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 21 ✗ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore | 28.5 | $1.80 | 59% | 31 ✗ |
| Bailey Dale | 27.5 | $1.76 | 58% | 22 ✓ |
| Ed Richards | 25.5 | $1.70 | 60% | 28 ✗ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 24.5 | $1.97 | 46% | 23 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 23.5 | $1.93 | 53% | 25 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah | 20.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Ryley Sanders | 19.5 | $1.78 | 42% | 13 ✓ |
| Tim English | 18.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 10 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)