AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 14.5 but the actual margin was 49 points. Total score prediction of 155 was close to the actual 151 — within 4 points. Fremantle led 42–34 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
69%
Port Adelaide
31%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Scoring Form. Fremantle carry a 99-point ELO rating advantage (1504 vs 1406). The margin model predicts Fremantle by 14.5 points with a combined total of 155.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.2%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -19.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.2%
Total Points
Under 165.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | WWLLL | 78.6 |
Port Adelaide | WWLLL | 69.2 |
Avg Conceded
85.2
Fremantle
100.0
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
-6.6
Fremantle
-30.8
Port Adelaide
Disposals
332.6
Fremantle
330.0
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
50.0
Fremantle
50.0
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Fremantle predicted to win by 15 points
Predicted total: 155 · Line: +14.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.26
Team Effectiveness
+0.13
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.