AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.5 but the actual margin was 49 points. Total score prediction of 155 was close to the actual 151, within 4 points. Fremantle led 42–34 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
69%
Port Adelaide
31%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Fremantle counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 59-point ELO rating advantage (1578 vs 1519). The margin model predicts Fremantle by 14.5 points with a combined total of 155.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.2%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -19.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.2%
Total Points
Under 165.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | W W W L L | 77.7 |
Port Adelaide | W W W L L | 91.3 |
Avg Conceded
98.7
Fremantle
67.5
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
18.7
Fremantle
17.0
Port Adelaide
Disposals
337.8
Fremantle
371.1
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
51.3
Fremantle
47.2
Port Adelaide
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1578 vs 1519), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.33).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Fremantle predicted to win by 15 points
Predicted total: 155 · Line: +14.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.26
Team Effectiveness
+0.13
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.