# Fremantle v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 100 – 51 Port Adelaide

_Fremantle put Port Adelaide to the sword._

Half time: 42 – 34 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 69% / Port Adelaide 31% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 24 May, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Sam Switkowski (8'), Isaiah Dudley (20' ×2), Murphy Reid (22' ×4), Matthew Johnson (38'), Michael Frederick (40' Tipped ⚡), Alex Pearce (81'), Luke Jackson (92'), Final quarter (31m 33s)Patrick Voss (64'), Jye Amiss (82' Tipped ⚡), Shai Bolton (93' Tipped ⚡) · Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (5' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Jeremy Finlayson (12'), Willie Rioli (62' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Miles Bergman (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 69% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.5 predicted → 49 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Fremantle 100–51 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 11 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle led by six at the main break, 42-34, the kind of margin that still lets the trailing side believe. Then the third quarter happened. Port Adelaide managed two points. Fremantle put up 26. By the three-quarter time siren it was 68-36 and the contest was effectively over, twenty minutes before the final one sounded.

The full-time score, 100-51, just confirmed what that third term had already decided. A 49-point margin at Optus Stadium, and Fremantle never really had to sweat the last quarter, adding to the lead rather than defending it.

What's odd is the shape of this game compared to what walked in the door. Port Adelaide arrived with the better forward rating, 1131 to 977, and the edge in the ruck, 1023 to 997. Their recent form had them scoring more too, 91.3 points a game on average against Fremantle's 77.7, and conceding a lot less, 67.5 to Fremantle's near-99. On paper this was meant to be tighter than it was.

It wasn't, because Fremantle won the fight for the footy and then made it count. Forty-eight clearances to 43, contested possessions 160 to 138. Once they had it, they used it: 69.9 per cent disposal efficiency against Port's 65.2, and 92 marks to 68, with 8 marks inside 50 to Port's 6. Port actually shaded the inside-50 count, 56 to 55, and even out-tackled Fremantle, 64 to 62, but neither of those numbers meant much when the ball kept coming back out clean at the other end. Fremantle's 74 intercepts to 66 tell that story: they were reading the drop of the ball and turning Port's forward entries into nothing.

Total disposals were almost identical, 364 to 362, which makes the gap in efficiency the real separator. Same number of touches, wildly different returns from them.

Port's form line coming in suggested a side that moves the ball well, 371 disposals a game on average to Fremantle's 337.8, and that showed early: they were within two at quarter-time and six at half-time. But whatever was working in the first two quarters evaporated after the main break, and Port's ledger next to the 100-51 scoreboard reads like a side that couldn't buy a contested ball or a clean intercept when the game tipped away from them.

Alphr's model backed Fremantle at 69 per cent and got that right. The total score prediction of 155 landed close too, four points off the actual 151. The margin was the miss, tipped at 14.5 and blown out to 49, which is as reasonable a wrong number as you'll see given Port's forward and ruck edges going in. Three picks, two spot on, one well short. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 21 | 21 | 26 | 32 | 100 |
| Port Adelaide | 19 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 51 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **364** | Disposals | 362 |
| **160** | Contested poss. | 138 |
| **48** | Clearances | 43 |
| 55 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| **92** | Marks | 68 |
| **8** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| 62 | Tackles | **64** |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 40 |
| **74** | Intercepts | 66 |
| **69.9%** | Disposal eff. | 65.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.5 but the actual margin was 49 points. Total score prediction of 155 was close to the actual 151, within 4 points. Fremantle led 42–34 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.33 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 69.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -19.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 15 · Predicted total: 155

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 81 · 84 | 74 · 91 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 79/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.2/g | 16.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8/g | 8.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 69.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 31 | 23 · 31 |
| Goal Assists | 4.4/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 152/g | 146/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.4/g | 23/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.1/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.6% | 70.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 8 | 15 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 105/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.4/g | 12.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 82.3% | 77.8% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.52/g (lg 1.31) +16% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.5) +2% · Forwards 4.51/g (lg 4.46) +1%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.5/g (lg 2.38) +5% · Key Forwards 3.54/g (lg 3.58) -1% · Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.46) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 23 in 10g | 23/10g (1·4·3·3·6·1·2·0·2·1) | 3/3g | 51/34g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 89% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 15 in 10g | 15/10g (0·1·4·1·0·3·2·2·0·2) | 3/3g | 48/30g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 82' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 15 in 10g | 15/10g (2·0·1·3·3·0·2·0·1·3) | 4/3g | 56/48g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 12 in 9g | 13/10g (1·0·0·2·2·3·1·0·1·3) | 12/11g | 25/14g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 93' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (4·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 70% | — | 🏉 22' 49' 71' 77' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 6 in 8g | 6/8g (2·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 63% | — | 🏉 20' 88' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 6 in 6g | 11/10g (1·0·2·2·1·1·0·1·2·1) | 2/1g | 7/8g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 74% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 30/80g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 28/53g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 7/18g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 3 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 25/33g | 56% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 2/59g | 10% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 31/48g | 46% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 21/59g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 20/58g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Simpson | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/44g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/25g | 16% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/16g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/29g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/81g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/16g | 5% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 21 in 10g | 21/10g (0·4·2·3·3·3·2·1·2·1) | 7/4g | 6/3g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 16' 47' |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (0·3·0·1·2·2·1·1·2·2) | 10/9g | 6/5g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 13 in 9g | 14/10g (1·1·3·0·0·3·3·1·2·0) | 8/6g | 38/30g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' 86' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·1·1·2·0·1·3·0·2·1) | 3/12g | 3/8g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 3/6g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·2·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 57% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 7 in 7g | 10/10g (1·1·1·3·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Finlayson | KF | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·3·0) | 5/4g | 3/5g | 60% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/16g | 1/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 9/19g | 3/8g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 1/4g | 12% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Ryan Burton | DEF | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 1/7g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 0 in 2g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Jackson | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Rory Atkins | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 2/5g | 28% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | 28.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 29 ✗ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 28.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 21 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 22.5 | $1.89 | 55% | 20 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 22 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.86 | 81% | 21 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 19.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 18 ✓ |
| Matthew Johnson | 17.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 21 ✗ |
| Jeremy Sharp | 15.5 | $1.85 | 58% | 11 ✓ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.82 | 80% | 24 ✓ |
| Connor Rozee ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 27 ✓ |
| Ollie Wines | 25.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 33 ✗ |
| Ryan Burton ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 18 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 20.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 18 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 23 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 18.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 23 ✗ |
| Logan Evans ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r11-fremantle-v-port-adelaide
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)