# Essendon v Richmond — AFL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 81 – 58 Richmond

_Essendon see off Richmond._

Half time: 40 – 31 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 87% / Richmond 13% · MCG · Fri, 23 May, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Angus Clarke (26' ×3), Nic Martin (38'), Sam Durham (60'), Peter Wright (82' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Matt Guelfi (90' Tipped ⚡), Archie Perkins (67' Tipped ⚡) · Richmond: Tim Taranto (12' ×2 1st), Jonty Faull (41' Tipped ⚡), Hugo Ralphsmith (50' ×2), Rhyan Mansell (66'), Sam Lalor (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 87% | Won |
| Richmond | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 29.5 predicted → 23 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Essendon 81–58 Richmond in AFL Round 11 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Essendon led from the first change and never looked like giving it up, closing out Richmond 81 to 58 at the MCG.

The gap was there from the opening break, 13 to 8, and it just kept widening. By half time it was 40 to 31. By three-quarter time it was 62 to 50. Richmond kept scoring, to be fair, chipping in enough to make it look competitive on paper, but they never once got the margin back under single figures after quarter time. That's the story of this one: Essendon set the terms early and Richmond spent four quarters chasing a number that kept moving away from them.

The engine room explains it. Essendon won the hit-outs 56 to 30, won clearances 45 to 23, and from that platform just flooded the ball forward, 55 inside 50s to 48. Once Essendon had it, they kept it, 442 disposals to 342, at 72.7% efficiency against Richmond's 67.6%. That's not a small gap. That's a team dictating terms with the ball in hand for four quarters straight.

Richmond's one real win in the stat sheet was intercepts, 76 to 68, which says something about their defensive reads. Problem is, reading the intercept doesn't help much if you can't win it back at the source. Essendon had 141 contested possessions to Richmond's 124, so a lot of that Richmond ball came in situations where Essendon already held the whip hand elsewhere on the ground.

Tackle pressure told a similar tale, Essendon laying 74 to Richmond's 54. Add the marks inside 50, 8 to 6, and you've got a side finishing chances more often as well as generating more of them.

None of this should have surprised anyone who looked at the form line. Essendon came in with the stronger midfield rating, 1010 to 916, and Richmond's only positional edge on paper was the ruck, 998 to 978, which didn't hold up on the day given the hit-out count. Richmond's recent form had them winning more often across their last five, but averaging fewer points scored than conceded on the season, an average margin near enough to level at minus 0.2. Essendon, by contrast, had been running an average margin of plus 8.6. This result sits comfortably inside that pattern.

Alphr's model had Essendon by 29.5 points, off ratings of 1515 to 1466, giving them an 87% win probability. Essendon obliged, the actual margin landing at 23, close enough to call the read solid. The model did overshoot on total scoring, tipping 169 combined points against the 139 that actually went on the board, so the model's pace projection ran hot even if the winning margin was in the right region. Two out of three isn't a bad night's work, and Essendon comfortably covered the 24.5-point line most books would have set.

Richmond will look at the intercept count and find some encouragement in it. Everything else on the sheet points the same direction: outmuscled at the source, outrun after it, and never quite able to turn the ball back Essendon's way often enough to matter.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 13 | 27 | 22 | 19 | 81 |
| Richmond | 8 | 23 | 19 | 8 | 58 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **442** | Disposals | 342 |
| **141** | Contested poss. | 124 |
| **45** | Clearances | 23 |
| **55** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| **102** | Marks | 94 |
| **8** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| **74** | Tackles | 54 |
| **56** | Hit-outs | 30 |
| 68 | Intercepts | **76** |
| **72.7%** | Disposal eff. | 67.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Essendon to win at 87% probability. The predicted margin of 29.5 was reasonable against the actual 23-point result. The game's 139 points came in 30 points lower than the predicted 169. Essendon led 40–31 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 23. The model went 2/3 on this match. Essendon covered the 24.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $1.27 (edge +8.3%) — model probability 87.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon -24.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 158.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 30 · Predicted total: 169

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 50 · 78 | 68 · 92 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 94/g | 78/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.4/g | 15.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.1/g | 6.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.1% | 66.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 36 · 27 | 19 · 34 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposals | 150/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.8/g | 17.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.6% | 70% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 15 | 11 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 143/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 10/g | 11/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.8% | 79.8% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.64/g (lg 3.59) +29% · Midfielders 2.7/g (lg 2.39) +13% · Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.5) +10%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.53/g (lg 1.31) +17% · Forwards 5.05/g (lg 4.45) +13% · Key Forwards 3.78/g (lg 3.59) +5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·0·0·2·2·0·2·2·3·0) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 75% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 10 in 8g | 10/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·1·3·1·1) | 1/5g | 15/28g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 9 in 5g | 15/10g (2·2·2·0·0·6·2·0·0·1) | 6/5g | 44/28g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 82' 81' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 8 in 9g | 9/10g (1·2·4·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 7/15g | 34/74g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 6 in 9g | 6/9g (1·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/3g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 19/27g | 48% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 6/15g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 20/11g | 31/25g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 4 in 5g | 10/10g (0·2·0·1·3·2·1·1·0·0) | 8/9g | 48/47g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 2/4g | 9/28g | 36% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/7g | 7/13g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 7/40g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 13/24g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 6/50g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 26' 36' 53' |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 12/40g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Matt Guelfi | FWD | no games | 10/10g (3·0·1·2·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 15/31g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 90' |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 11/26g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/28g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 17 in 10g | 17/10g (2·2·3·2·0·2·0·1·2·3) | 0/1g | 13/18g | 59% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 76% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 9 in 9g | 9/9g (2·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 7/6g | 67% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/12g | 32/108g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 5 in 7g | 8/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 2/1g | 23/36g | 60% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/9g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 5/8g | 26/43g | 46% | — | 🏉 12' 71' |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 6/16g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 3 in 6g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 9/30g | 30% | — | 🏉 50' 91' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/43g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 3 in 4g | 10/10g (2·1·2·0·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 3/2g | 16/25g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.47 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 41' |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/19g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sims | KF | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (1·1) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.52 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $19.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 7/33g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Thomson Dow | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/23g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/33g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Smith | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/86g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 16/134g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Samson Ryan | RUC | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/12g | 38% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 29.5 | $1.85 | 42% | 37 ✗ |
| Nic Martin | 25.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 35 ✗ |
| Jye Caldwell | 24.5 | $1.96 | 51% | 29 ✗ |
| Mason Redman | 23.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 15 ✓ |
| Sam Durham | 23.5 | $1.78 | 54% | 26 ✗ |
| Archie Roberts | 23.5 | $1.88 | 56% | 34 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath | 22.5 | $1.88 | 42% | 31 ✗ |
| Will Setterfield | 22.5 | $1.89 | 52% | 19 ✓ |
| Xavier Duursma | 19.5 | $1.83 | 44% | 27 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 27.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 23 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 26.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 23 ✓ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 80% | 29 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 19.5 | $1.60 | 60% | 24 ✗ |
| Thomson Dow | 18.5 | $1.89 | 43% | 11 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 17.5 | $1.88 | 45% | 18 ✗ |
| Nathan Broad | 14.5 | $1.85 | 54% | 22 ✗ |
| Sam Lalor | 14.5 | $1.84 | 49% | 2 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r11-essendon-v-richmond
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)