AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Essendon to win at 87% probability. The predicted margin of 29.5 was reasonable against the actual 23-point result. The game's 139 points came in 30 points lower than the predicted 169. Essendon led 40–31 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 23. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
87%
Richmond
13%
AI Match Overview
Essendon are clear favourites here at 87%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Essendon ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Essendon carry a 48-point ELO rating advantage (1515 vs 1466). Recent form favours Richmond with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Essendon by 29.5 points with a combined total of 169.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Essendon to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.3%
Line / Spread
Essendon -24.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.3%
Total Points
Over 158.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | W W L L L | 81.2 |
Richmond | W W W W L | 101.2 |
Avg Conceded
77.2
Essendon
87.5
Richmond
Avg Margin
8.6
Essendon
-0.2
Richmond
Disposals
362.2
Essendon
347.4
Richmond
Inside 50s
45.0
Essendon
48.3
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
87%
Essendon predicted to win by 30 points
Predicted total: 169 · Line: +29.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.11
Team Effectiveness
+0.25
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.