# Carlton v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 82 – 110 GWS GIANTS

_GWS GIANTS dwarf Carlton._

Half time: 42 – 52 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 35% / GWS GIANTS 65% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 24 May, 12:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Charlie Curnow (7' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Patrick Cripps (9'), Oliver Hollands (17'), Lachie Fogarty (23' ×2), Will White (46'), Sam Docherty (71'), Jesse Motlop (95'), Final quarter (32m 56s)Cooper Lord (65'), Adam Cerra (80') · GWS GIANTS: Toby Greene (14' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Callum Brown (20' ×3), Jake Riccardi (26' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jesse Hogan (39' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Callan Ward (83'), Kieren Briggs (69'), Aaron Cadman (78' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 65% | Won |
| Carlton | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.8 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton vs GWS GIANTS Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Carlton 82–110 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 11 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton won the territory battle and still lost by 28. That's the strange arithmetic of this one. They went inside 50 58 times to GWS GIANTS' 47, they won the clearance count 42 to 38, and they finished with more disposals, 358 to 345. On paper that's a side that should be competitive deep into the last quarter. Instead they're walking off having conceded 110.

The problem was what happened once the ball got inside that forward 50. Carlton had it there more often but did far less with it, managing just 8 marks inside the arc to GWS GIANTS' 14. All that territory, converted into pressure that didn't stick. Their disposal efficiency told the same story, 72.2% against the visitors' 77.6%, meaning every trip forward carried more risk of turning the ball over than it should have.

Carlton also came in as the form side and the better rated one across the park, holding the edge in midfield (1107 to 1013), forwards (1042 to 979), defence (1111 to 1031) and ruck (1125 to 953). Their last-five form had them averaging 92 points scored and conceding 65. None of that showed up in front of the sticks at Marvel Stadium. GWS GIANTS' recent form read like a side going the other way, up 82 conceded a game, but they're the ones who put 110 on the board here.

The timeline explains why Carlton never really got a look in. GWS GIANTS led 32 to 31 at the first break, a one-point game that gave nothing away. By half time it was 52 to 42, and by three-quarter time the margin had stretched to 77 to 63. Carlton didn't fold, they scored 19 points in the last term to GWS GIANTS' 33, but the gap had already opened too far to close.

GWS GIANTS did it with cleaner hands and harder bodies at the contest. They won marks overall 85 to 77, hit-outs 34 to 31, and out-tackled Carlton 64 to 53, evidence of a side prepared to work without the ball as hard as they did with it. Carlton actually shaded contested possessions, 154 to 116, and intercepts, 64 to 61, so it wasn't a lack of effort. It was that Carlton's dominance in the grind didn't translate to scoreboard pressure, while GWS GIANTS made their fewer opportunities count.

Alphr's model had GWS GIANTS as 65% favourites and got the winner right. The margin was the miss: an expected 8.8 points blew out to an actual 28, and the projected total of 164 undercooked the real figure by 28 points as well. Two from three isn't a bad return, but this was a match where the model's respect for Carlton's underlying numbers, midfield, ruck, defence, all rated higher, didn't line up with what actually happened when the ball hit the forward line.

Carlton had the ball more, went forward more, and still lost by four goals. GWS GIANTS took their chances when it counted and let the scoreboard do the rest.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 31 | 11 | 21 | 19 | 82 |
| GWS GIANTS | 32 | 20 | 25 | 33 | 110 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| **358** | Disposals | 345 |
| **154** | Contested poss. | 116 |
| **42** | Clearances | 38 |
| **58** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| 77 | Marks | **85** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| 53 | Tackles | **64** |
| 31 | Hit-outs | **34** |
| **64** | Intercepts | 61 |
| 72.2% | Disposal eff. | **77.6%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.8 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 192 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 164. GWS GIANTS led 42–52 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 2/3 on this match. GWS GIANTS covered the 8.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $2.40 (edge +23.8%) — model probability 65.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 9 · Predicted total: 164

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 67 · 68 | 93 · 63 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 91/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.9/g | 19.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.8/g | 9.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.8% | 65.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 26 | 26 · 33 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 162/g | 143/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.2/g | 20.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.9/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.1% | 70.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 16 | 2 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 136/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.3/g | 10.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.4% | 80.7% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.5) +2% · Defenders 1.28/g (lg 1.31) -2% · Forwards 4.26/g (lg 4.49) -5%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.5) +4% · Forwards 4.53/g (lg 4.49) +1% · Defenders 1.27/g (lg 1.31) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 21 in 9g | 22/10g (1·0·3·1·2·4·3·2·3·3) | 16/10g | 118/47g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 29' 80' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 10 in 6g | 11/10g (0·1·0·0·4·2·1·2·0·1) | 8/6g | 17/18g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 58% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 9 in 6g | 16/10g (2·1·1·3·1·0·3·0·3·2) | 20/9g | 83/41g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (0·0·0·1·3·1·0·2·0·2) | 3/13g | 43/67g | 52% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·3·0·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 25/16g | 50% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Will White | FWD | 6 in 7g | 6/7g (0·1·3·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/1g | 57% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 11/39g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/6g | 5/27g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 10/40g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/5g | 4/19g | 28% | — | 🏉 23' 81' |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 7/26g | 30% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 2 in 8g | 5/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 28/68g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/17g | 14% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 9/27g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Binns | MID | 1 in 2g | 3/5g (0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 15/31g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 7/46g | 28% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 4/53g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Harry O'Farrell | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 4/58g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/23g | 6% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 26 in 7g | 36/10g (2·3·5·4·9·2·2·1·7·1) | 17/10g | 51/20g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' 68' 88' 85' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 18 in 10g | 18/10g (1·3·2·3·5·0·2·0·1·1) | 21/17g | 34/28g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 32' 89' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (0·2·1·1·2·0·1·2·1·1) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' 82' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·2·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·2) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.47 AI 54% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 1/6g | 1/8g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 6 in 6g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·0·3·1·0) | 14/7g | 13/9g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' 63' 96' |
| – | Callan Ward | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 10/16g | 16/30g | 40% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/3g | 4/5g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 46% | — | 🏉 20' 22' 58' |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Cody Angove | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/12g | 13/18g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | no games | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/7g | 8% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/16g | 9/25g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | 27.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 17 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.89 | 71% | 25 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 23 ✓ |
| Sam Walsh | 24.5 | $1.79 | 53% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.86 | 76% | 17 ✓ |
| Adam Saad | 18.5 | $1.80 | 49% | 20 ✗ |
| Blake Acres | 18.5 | $1.91 | 50% | 9 ✓ |
| Sam Docherty | 18.5 | $1.94 | 45% | 30 ✗ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green | 30.5 | $1.92 | 56% | 25 ✓ |
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.92 | 66% | 27 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 28 ✗ |
| Callan Ward | 19.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Connor Idun ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 20 ✗ |
| Toby Greene | 18.5 | $1.78 | 59% | 28 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg | 18.5 | $1.86 | 58% | 19 ✗ |
| Xavier O'Halloran ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 81% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)