AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 92% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 36.4 but the actual margin was 66 points. Total score prediction of 191 was close to the actual 190, within 1 points. Adelaide Crows led 53–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 66. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
92%
West Coast Eagles
8%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 92%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Adelaide Crows. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 36.4 points with a combined total of 191.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.05
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.3%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.3%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | W L L L L | 100.3 |
West Coast Eagles | W W L L L | 94.5 |
Avg Conceded
74.7
Adelaide Crows
84.3
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
-7.5
Adelaide Crows
16.7
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
340.3
Adelaide Crows
354.5
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.1
Adelaide Crows
48.5
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
92%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 36 points
Predicted total: 191 · Line: +36.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-1.00
Team Effectiveness
+0.22
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.