# Adelaide Crows v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 128 – 62 West Coast Eagles

_Adelaide Crows swoop on West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 53 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 92% / West Coast Eagles 8% · Adelaide Oval · Sun, 25 May, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: James Peatling (9' ×2), Jordan Dawson (13' ×2), Luke Pedlar (22' ×2), Ben Keays (35' Tipped ⚡), Reilly OBrien (47'), Josh Rachele (54' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Riley Thilthorpe (61' Tipped ⚡), Izak Rankine (75' Tipped ⚡), Alex Neal-Bullen (83' Tipped ⚡), Sam Berry (88'), Darcy Fogarty (68' Tipped ⚡) · West Coast Eagles: Brady Hough (6' 1st), Harley Reid (15'), Jake Waterman (21' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Tyler Brockman (39'), Oscar Allen (82' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 92% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 8% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 36.4 predicted → 66 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 128–62 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 11 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows play a patient, possession-heavy game. West Coast Eagles, on the numbers coming in, were built to win the contested ball and use it in bursts. Only one of those approaches showed up at Adelaide Oval, and by the finish it wasn't close: Adelaide Crows 128, West Coast Eagles 62.

The scoreboard tells you the shape of it. Adelaide led 26–20 at quarter time, a manageable gap, the kind West Coast Eagles could have lived with. By half time it was 53–36, still theoretically retrievable. Then the home side simply kept doing what it does, better, and stretched it to 102–45 by three-quarter time. The last quarter was a formality that added another 26 points to a lead already out of reach.

Strip it back to method and the contrast is obvious. Adelaide Crows finished with 386 disposals to 282, and did something with them, 70.6% efficiency against West Coast Eagles's 66.1%. That's not a small edge over four quarters. Add 107 marks to West Coast's 60 and you've got a team that kept the ball moving through controlled hands rather than hoping for the contested strike that sometimes pays off and sometimes doesn't.

West Coast Eagles weren't disgraced at the coalface, not entirely. Marks inside 50 were locked at 10 apiece, so when the ball did arrive in their forward line, they made something of it. But everywhere else the gap was ugly: contested possessions 147 to 121, clearances 46 to 36, inside 50s 64 to 55, tackles 73 to 57. A team can win the occasional individual battle and still lose the war of attrition, and that's what happened.

The ruck battle is worth a second look, because it flips the pre-match read on its head. West Coast Eagles came in rated stronger there, 992 to 966. On the day, Adelaide Crows won hit-outs 56 to 28. That's the kind of number that should make you cautious about leaning too hard on any single positional rating in isolation.

Form lines pointed the other way for West Coast Eagles too, at least on paper.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 26 | 27 | 49 | 26 | 128 |
| West Coast Eagles | 20 | 16 | 9 | 17 | 62 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **386** | Disposals | 282 |
| **147** | Contested poss. | 121 |
| **46** | Clearances | 36 |
| **64** | Inside 50s | 55 |
| **107** | Marks | 60 |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| **73** | Tackles | 57 |
| **56** | Hit-outs | 28 |
| **65** | Intercepts | 62 |
| **70.6%** | Disposal eff. | 66.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 92% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 36.4 but the actual margin was 66 points. Total score prediction of 191 was close to the actual 190, within 1 points. Adelaide Crows led 53–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 66. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.05 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 91.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -51.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 36 · Predicted total: 191

### H2H History (Last 5) — Adelaide Crows lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | West Coast Eagles | 74 – 99 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2025 | R22 | West Coast Eagles | 78 – 87 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R11 | Adelaide Crows | 137 – 38 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2023 | R24 | West Coast Eagles | 78 – 123 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2023 | R13 | Adelaide Crows | 174 – 52 | West Coast Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 111 · 73 | 78 · 107 |
| Goal Assists | 5.6/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.6/g | 21.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.7/g | 8.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 68.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 31 | 19 · 37 |
| Goal Assists | 5.2/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 90/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.1/g | 12.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.7% | 71.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 10 | 4 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 98/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.7/g | 11.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80% | 71.9% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.84/g (lg 0.5) +68% · Midfielders 3.52/g (lg 2.38) +48% · Key Forwards 4.71/g (lg 3.58) +32%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.45/g (lg 1.31) +11% · Midfielders 2.46/g (lg 2.38) +3% · Forwards 4.34/g (lg 4.46) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 25 in 9g | 25/10g (0·4·3·2·3·4·0·2·3·4) | 21/9g | 108/64g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 23 in 10g | 23/10g (3·3·3·5·1·1·3·1·3·0) | 4/4g | 46/37g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 16 in 10g | 16/10g (1·4·2·1·3·1·0·2·2·0) | 7/10g | 54/67g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (2·2·0·0·2·1·1·2·2·1) | 10/5g | 55/29g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 12 in 7g | 18/10g (3·2·1·2·4·0·1·2·2·1) | 6/3g | 47/36g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' 94' 96' 77' 89' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 10/13g | 10/18g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 6/5g | 16/40g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1) | 4/8g | 22/47g | 30% | — | 🏉 13' 91' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/11g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sid Draper | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/14g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 2 in 9g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 1/6g | 22% | — | 🏉 9' 92' |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/32g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/40g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 18/61g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/42g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/23g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | no games | 5/10g (0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 15/15g | 50% | — | 🏉 22' 80' |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 7/72g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 18/131g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 3/34g | 16% | — | 🏉 88' |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 14 in 7g | 19/10g (1·2·2·2·0·4·2·3·1·2) | 6/8g | 8/9g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 63' 66' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 11 in 8g | 11/10g (0·0·3·1·2·0·3·0·0·2) | 6/7g | 8/7g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·2) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 40% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·3·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 14/7g | 10/7g | 72% | — | 🏉 82' 84' |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 3/8g | 0/11g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 3/2g | 1/2g | 42% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 2/7g | 3/9g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 4% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/9g | 3/12g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Noah Long | FWD | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tom Gross | FWD | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 6/14g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/14g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/3g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 4/12g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | 26.5 | $1.82 | 63% | 27 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.86 | 68% | 23 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $1.88 | 39% | 27 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 16 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 19.5 | $1.78 | 55% | 20 ✗ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Maric ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.82 | 79% | 20 ✓ |
| Liam Baker ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 67% | 18 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 19.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 23 ✗ |
| Jack Graham | 18.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 18 ✓ |
| Brady Hough ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 79% | 9 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 17.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)