AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 80% probability. The predicted margin of 24.9 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. The game's 210 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 179. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
80%
North Melbourne
20%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. Western Bulldogs carry a 346-point ELO rating advantage (1611 vs 1265). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 24.9 points with a combined total of 179.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.36
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.4%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -20.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.4%
Total Points
Over 177.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | WWWLL | 96.0 |
North Melbourne | WLLLL | 68.2 |
Avg Conceded
74.4
Western Bulldogs
118.6
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
21.6
Western Bulldogs
-50.4
North Melbourne
Disposals
362.2
Western Bulldogs
364.6
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Western Bulldogs
50.0
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
80%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 25 points
Predicted total: 179 · Line: +24.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.19
Team Effectiveness
+0.07
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.