# Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne — AFL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 113 – 97 North Melbourne

_Western Bulldogs let the dogs loose on North Melbourne._

Half time: 53 – 43 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 80% / North Melbourne 20% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 15 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Ed Richards (4' 1st), Sam Darcy (6' Tipped ⚡), Laitham Vandermeer (19' ×2), Bailey Dale (22' ×2), Aaron Naughton (26' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Sam Davidson (35'), James Harmes (58'), Ryley Sanders (86' ×2), Final quarter (40m 46s)Joel Freijah (66'), Lachlan McNeil (69' ×2) · North Melbourne: Nick Larkey (11' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Jy Simpkin (42'), Jack Darling (55' Tipped ⚡), Cameron Zurhaar (66' Tipped ⚡), Luke Davies-Uniacke (77' ×2), Bailey Scott (81'), Paul Curtis (75' ×3 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 80% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 20% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 24.9 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Western Bulldogs 113–97 North Melbourne in AFL Round 1 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne did most of the hard yards on Saturday and still finished 16 points short. They won the clearances 42 to 36, doubled up at the stoppages with 52 hit-outs to 31, and used the footy far better, hitting targets at 77.2 per cent against the Bulldogs' 73.6. By most of the ledger that reads like a winning side.

It wasn't enough. Western Bulldogs 113, North Melbourne 97 at Marvel Stadium, and the scoreboard tells you the parts of the game that mattered more than clearance counts.

Go back to the start and North Melbourne were nowhere. Quarter time had the Dogs up 33-10, a 23-point gap that had nothing to do with contested ball or clean hands. Then North Melbourne found some rhythm, clawing the margin back to 10 points at half time and to just 7 by the last change, 79-72. That's the version of North Melbourne that had them averaging a healthy plus-18.8 margin over their last five, and for a stretch there it looked like the form line was going to hold up.

It didn't hold in the final term. The Dogs found another 34 points to North Melbourne's 25 in that last quarter to close it out 113-97, and the pressure stats explain why North Melbourne couldn't get over the top. They laid 75 tackles to the Dogs' 52, which is a serious defensive shift, but they were still let down where it counts most: inside 50. North Melbourne were the more accurate side forward of centre, 17 marks inside 50 to 12, yet they only went there 48 times to the Bulldogs' 57. Fewer entries against a forward line rated at 1109 to their own 879 pre-match was always going to be the problem, and so it proved.

The Bulldogs' whole method was volume over polish. They won the disposal count 360 to 378 in North Melbourne's favour, they were less efficient by four percentage points, and they still got there because they kept pumping it forward and had the personnel to make it count once it arrived. A defence rated 1105 against North Melbourne's 909 did the rest, conceding at a rate their season average of 85.1 points would suggest is about right against most sides, just not enough to keep this one from becoming a shootout.

North Melbourne came in averaging 106.6 points a game and scoring plenty against most opponents, and they backed that up, cracking 97. Trouble is the ledger also had them at plus-18.8 for the season while the Bulldogs sat at minus-5.7, and the model still had Western Bulldogs rated well clear at 1555 to 1437, tipping them by 24.9 points with an 80 per cent win probability. The actual margin, 16, landed under that number but on the right side of it. The total of 210 blew past the predicted 179 by 31 points, which tracks with a game that opened at a canter and finished as a track meet. Three from three for the model on this one, margin included in the ballpark. North Melbourne have plenty to work with, they just ran into a side built to punish exactly the gap they left open inside 50.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 33 | 20 | 26 | 34 | 113 |
| North Melbourne | 10 | 33 | 29 | 25 | 97 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 360 | Disposals | **378** |
| 130 | Contested poss. | **132** |
| 36 | Clearances | **42** |
| **57** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| 84 | Marks | **85** |
| 12 | Marks inside 50 | **17** |
| 52 | Tackles | **75** |
| 31 | Hit-outs | **52** |
| **54** | Intercepts | 51 |
| 73.6% | Disposal eff. | **77.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 80% probability. The predicted margin of 24.9 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. The game's 210 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 179. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.36 (edge +6.4%) — model probability 79.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -20.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 25 · Predicted total: 179

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | no games | 14/10g (1·2·0·2·0·2·0·2·2·3) | 16/9g | 100/65g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 75' 72' |
| – | Arthur Jones | FWD | no games | 5/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/10g | 46/77g | 16% | — | 🏉 22' 70' |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 4/9g | 18/70g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | no games | 9/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·1·2·2·0) | 4/7g | 17/57g | 30% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Harvey Gallagher | MID | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 6/11g | 33% | — | — |
| – | James Harmes | MID | no games | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·4·2·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 10/19g | 30% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/15g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/18g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 9/28g | 30% | — | 🏉 69' 84' |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/5g | 14/30g | 28% | — | 🏉 19' 61' |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | no games | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | no games | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/6g | 22/35g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | no games | 13/10g (1·4·0·2·4·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 26/29g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 34/33g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | 🏉 86' 77' |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | no games | 16/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·1·7·2·1) | 8/2g | 18/13g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.88 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 6' |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Taylor Duryea | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 5/63g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | no games | 7/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 7/7g | 39/60g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/16g | 39/110g | 26% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/38g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Scott | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 14/41g | 26% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 30/88g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | no games | 12/10g (4·2·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 10/7g | 76/54g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/13g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Tucker | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 9/29g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/17g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | no games | 12/10g (1·2·2·1·1·0·2·1·0·2) | 1/2g | 8/20g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | no games | 10/10g (2·1·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·2) | 44/18g | 55/32g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' |
| – | Jackson Archer | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | no games | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·3) | 3/11g | 26/70g | 40% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | no games | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 19/46g | 42% | — | 🏉 77' 103' |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 11/94g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | no games | 14/10g (2·1·0·0·2·3·3·0·0·3) | 12/17g | 29/32g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.85 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | no games | 18/10g (0·0·3·3·2·3·5·1·1·0) | 12/7g | 106/51g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 41' 51' 73' 95' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | no games | 11/10g (0·2·1·0·3·1·0·3·0·1) | 3/3g | 31/26g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' 78' 85' |
| – | Robert Hansen Jr | DEF | no games | 4/8g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/1g | 3/3g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 3/5g | 11/32g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | no games | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 10/24g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Will Phillips | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/18g | 18% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 28 ✗ |
| Bailey Dale | 24.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 29 ✗ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 73% | 30 ✗ |
| Ryley Sanders ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $2.05 | 85% | 15 ✓ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 28 ✗ |
| James Harmes ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.84 | 77% | 16 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 19.5 | $1.85 | 54% | 23 ✗ |
| Lachlan Bramble | 18.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 21 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 31 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 20 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.80 | 93% | 24 ✓ |
| Colby McKercher | 23.5 | $1.82 | 50% | 17 ✓ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.92 | 80% | 27 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 22.5 | $1.94 | 49% | 30 ✗ |
| Bailey Scott | 20.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri | 19.5 | $1.85 | 63% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)