# West Coast Eagles v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 49 – 136 Gold Coast SUNS

_Gold Coast SUNS put West Coast Eagles to the sword._

Half time: 16 – 61 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 44% / Gold Coast SUNS 56% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 16 Mar, 06:10 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Jake Waterman (3' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Oscar Allen (9' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harley Reid (82'), Matt Flynn (88'), Matthew Owies (66' Tipped ⚡) · Gold Coast SUNS: Jake Rogers (15' ×3), Ben King (18' ×6 Tipped ⚡), Touk Miller (27' ×2), Ethan Read (39' Tipped ⚡), Ben Long (48' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Will Graham (70'), Daniel Rioli (86')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 56% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.4 predicted → 87 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

West Coast Eagles 49–136 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 1 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at Optus Stadium had already answered most of the questions this game was going to ask: West Coast Eagles 16, Gold Coast SUNS 61. A 45-point gap before the main break, built from a 29-13 first quarter that gave the SUNS the platform and a second term that turned a lead into a rout.

The second half didn't rewrite anything. It just kept confirming it. Gold Coast SUNS took a 95-35 lead into three-quarter time, then added another 41 points in the last while holding West Coast to 14. Final score: Gold Coast SUNS 136, West Coast Eagles 49. An 87-point win, and the scoreboard barely wobbled at any stage after quarter time.

The numbers explain why. Gold Coast SUNS won hit-outs 77 to 19, a gap that flowed straight into first use of the ball around stoppages. From there they controlled clearances 50 to 33 and contested possessions 145 to 102, the kind of edge that lets a team dictate territory rather than chase it.

Territory is exactly what followed. Gold Coast SUNS went inside 50 a whopping 67 times to West Coast's 34, nearly double the home side's forward entries. And it wasn't just volume: they were sharper once they got there too, taking 19 marks inside 50 to West Coast's 8. That combination, more entries and cleaner hands at the business end, is usually enough on its own to explain an 87-point margin.

West Coast weren't blown off the park in every column. Tackles were close, 65 to 64, suggesting the Eagles competed physically even as the scoreboard ran away from them. Disposal efficiency was also tight, 68.3 per cent for West Coast against 69.7 for Gold Coast, and intercepts were nearly even too, 55 to 57. The gap wasn't really about the Eagles fumbling the footy or turning it over recklessly. It was about not getting their hands on it often enough, and not winning the contests that mattered.

Total disposals told a similar story to inside 50s: Gold Coast SUNS finished with 368 to West Coast's 296, a 72-possession advantage across the afternoon. Add marks, 77 to 62, and it's a picture of a team that had the ball more, moved it forward more, and finished its forward-half possessions with more polish.

Going in, Alphr's model had rated the sides close, West Coast Eagles 1499 to Gold Coast SUNS 1520, and tipped a SUNS win by 7.4 points on a combined total of 171. The scoreline blew that number away. Gold Coast SUNS's actual margin of 87 points was more than eleven times the model's projected gap, even though the total of 185 wasn't wildly off the predicted 171.

So the head-to-head number missed badly, even as the model's lean toward Gold Coast SUNS as the winner proved correct. It's a reminder that ratings can pick a direction and still get blindsided by the scale of it. Nothing in the pre-match form line, not the ruck rating, not the recent scoring averages, quite forecast a night where West Coast would win the tackle count and still lose by 87.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 13 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 49 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 29 | 32 | 34 | 41 | 136 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 296 | Disposals | **368** |
| 102 | Contested poss. | **145** |
| 33 | Clearances | **50** |
| 34 | Inside 50s | **67** |
| 62 | Marks | **77** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **19** |
| **65** | Tackles | 64 |
| 19 | Hit-outs | **77** |
| 55 | Intercepts | **57** |
| 68.3% | Disposal eff. | **69.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.4 but the actual margin was 87 points. Gold Coast SUNS led 16–61 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 87. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.58 (edge -7.6%) — model probability 55.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 7 · Predicted total: 171

### H2H History (Last 5) — Gold Coast SUNS lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Gold Coast SUNS | 131 – 72 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2024 | R21 | West Coast Eagles | 97 – 87 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R7 | Gold Coast SUNS | 112 – 75 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2023 | R9 | West Coast Eagles | 43 – 113 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2022 | R20 | Gold Coast SUNS | 107 – 104 | West Coast Eagles |

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Archer Reid | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.61 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/29g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | no games | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 6/11g | 23% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/6g | 3/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | no games | 2/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | no games | 23/10g (3·3·1·2·2·3·4·1·2·2) | 11/6g | 82/55g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 74' |
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | no games | 11/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·1·3·1·2) | 18/15g | 88/73g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 9/25g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McGovern | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 5/62g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | no games | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 1/6g | 3/9g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 4/70g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 19% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | no games | 16/10g (3·1·0·2·3·1·1·1·3·1) | 6/4g | 6/3g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| – | Noah Long | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 6/14g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | no games | 20/10g (2·0·4·3·2·1·2·5·0·1) | 10/5g | 72/49g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 90' |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/21g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 6/14g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 19/50g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/56g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/7g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | no games | 5/7g (1·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 2/1g | 2/3g | 57% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alex Sexton | FWD | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 6/8g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/3g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | no games | 10/10g (1·2·1·0·1·1·0·2·1·1) | 7/6g | 2/5g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Ben King | KF | no games | 19/10g (2·4·1·2·0·1·3·3·2·1) | 14/5g | 10/4g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.12 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 45' 78' 86' 72' 82' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | no games | 14/10g (1·2·2·1·1·1·3·0·0·3) | 4/6g | 5/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' 54' 90' 80' |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Ballard | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 6/10g | 1/8g | 22% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | no games | 3/4g (1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | no games | 2/9g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 15' 73' 75' |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | no games | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·1) | 5/13g | 2/8g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 1/6g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 1/6g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 5/8g | 3/7g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/7g | 1/6g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 3/7g | 26% | — | 🏉 27' 83' |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | no games | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 2/2g | 2/2g | 48% | — | 🏉 70' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly | 25.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 14 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 20 ✓ |
| Jeremy McGovern | 21.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 20.5 | $1.80 | 56% | 12 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 19.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 21 ✗ |
| Jayden Hunt | 18.5 | $1.85 | 62% | 8 ✓ |
| Jack Graham ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 23 ✗ |
| Tom Cole ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 19 ✗ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 28.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 36 ✗ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.80 | 69% | 26 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.99 | 64% | 21 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 30 ✗ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.85 | 64% | 19 ✓ |
| Wil Powell | 18.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 13 ✓ |
| Lachie Weller | 17.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 21 ✗ |
| Ben Ainsworth | 15.5 | $1.85 | 59% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)