AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.4 but the actual margin was 87 points. Gold Coast SUNS led 16–61 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 87. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
44%
Gold Coast SUNS
56%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though West Coast Eagles are far from out of this at 44%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 21-point ELO rating advantage (1520 vs 1499). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 7.4 points with a combined total of 171.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.58
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.6%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.6%
Total Points
Over 170.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | WWWLL | 105.5 |
Gold Coast SUNS | WWLLL | 70.8 |
Avg Conceded
94.1
West Coast Eagles
86.6
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
20.2
West Coast Eagles
0.4
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
353.4
West Coast Eagles
341.1
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
55.7
West Coast Eagles
43.5
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 171 · Line: -7.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.16
Team Effectiveness
-0.25
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.