# Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 82 – 86 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions hit back to devour Sydney Swans._

Half time: 45 – 32 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 67% / Brisbane Lions 33% · SCG · Sat, 15 Mar, 04:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Braeden Campbell (10' ×2 1st), Corey Warner (12' ×2), Jake Lloyd (27'), Chad Warner (48' ×2), Tom McCartin (67'), Tom Hanily (80'), Isaac Heeney (100' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (29m 41s)Will Hayward (72') · Brisbane Lions: Darcy Fort (31'), Callum Ah Chee (43' Tipped ⚡), Zac Bailey (47' ×4), Oscar McInerney (76'), Eric Hipwood (79'), Dayne Zorko (90' ×2), Logan Morris (97' Tipped ⚡), Josh Dunkley (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 67% | Lost |
| Brisbane Lions | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Sydney Swans 82–86 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 1 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions beat Sydney Swans 86-82 at the SCG. Four points, call it tight if you like. But look at the stat sheet and it reads like the wrong team lost. Sydney had 351 disposals to Brisbane's 344, marks 80 to 66, tackles 60 to 46, hit-outs 44 to 29, inside 50s 59 to 52. Sydney won nearly every column that's supposed to decide these things and still came up short by four points.

The scoreboard explains it better than any stat column does. Sydney led 24-9 at quarter time, a good start. By half-time it was 45-32, still a 13-point buffer. Then Brisbane took over. The Lions led 70-60 at three-quarter time, a 20-point swing across the third term that flipped the game on its head. From there Sydney couldn't quite claw it back, finishing 82-86.

Brisbane's method was written all over the contested numbers. They won contested possessions 156 to 131, clearances 42 to 36, and intercepts 73 to 68. Sydney had the ball more and used it better, 69.6% disposal efficiency to 67.1%, but Brisbane kept winning first use. That's the difference between a team that looks good on paper and a team that wins the actual footy.

Sydney's game was built on pressure and marking strength. Sixty tackles to 46 is a big number, and 80 marks to 66 suggests they were finding targets all day. Nine marks inside 50 apiece says both sides were reasonably clean going forward, but Sydney's extra volume of inside 50s, 59 to 52, didn't translate into the scoreboard difference it should have. Brisbane made better use of fewer entries.

The ruck battle went Sydney's way in raw terms, 44 hit-outs to 29, but hit-outs only matter if the midfield can use them, and Brisbane's clearance dominance suggests they were first to the loose ball regardless of who tapped it down. That's a common story in games like this: a team can win the taps and still lose the clearance count if their midfield isn't winning the follow-up.

Going into the match, the ratings had Brisbane as the stronger side across the park, ahead in midfield, forwards and defence, with Sydney only rated up in the ruck. That lines up with how it played out. Brisbane's form over the last five games had been patchy, an average losing margin of over six points, while Sydney had been the more consistent side, averaging a nine-point winning margin. On the numbers coming in, this had Sydney as the likely winner, and Alphr's model had Sydney at 67% to win by around nine points. Brisbane defied that. The combined score of 168 was picked almost exactly right, but the margin call missed, and the head-to-head result went the other way entirely.

In the end, this was a game where the aggregate stats flattered Sydney and the scoreboard told the truth. Brisbane controlled the passages of play that mattered, particularly that third-quarter surge, and held on despite being outworked almost everywhere else. Four points doesn't sound like a statement, but for a team that was rated the underdog and spent large stretches of the match behind, it's a result that will matter more than the numbers suggest.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 24 | 21 | 15 | 22 | 82 |
| Brisbane Lions | 9 | 23 | 38 | 16 | 86 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| **351** | Disposals | 344 |
| 131 | Contested poss. | **156** |
| 36 | Clearances | **42** |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 52 |
| **80** | Marks | 66 |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **60** | Tackles | 46 |
| **44** | Hit-outs | 29 |
| 68 | Intercepts | **73** |
| **69.6%** | Disposal eff. | 67.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Brisbane Lions defied the model's 67% prediction for Sydney Swans, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.0 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 168 was close to the actual 168, within 0 points. Brisbane Lions trailed 45–32 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 82–86. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 178.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $2.18 (edge +21.5%) — model probability 67.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 9 · Predicted total: 168

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sydney Swans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | QE | Sydney Swans | 141 – 88 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2026 | R16 | Brisbane Lions | 126 – 83 | Sydney Swans |
| 2026 | R1 | Sydney Swans | 104 – 60 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | R22 | Brisbane Lions | 90 – 92 | Sydney Swans |
| 2024 | PF | Sydney Swans | 60 – 120 | Brisbane Lions |

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 3 in 1g | 14/10g (2·1·0·0·2·2·1·3·0·3) | 2/4g | 39/27g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 76% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 2 in 1g | 11/10g (2·1·0·0·2·1·0·2·1·2) | 2/5g | 39/43g | 72% | — | 🏉 12' 19' 48' 87' |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 2/4g | 19/50g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 21/55g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 16/57g | 4% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 1 in 1g | 17/10g (1·2·2·1·4·0·2·3·1·1) | 10/10g | 139/82g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 1 in 1g | 14/10g (2·1·1·3·3·0·2·0·1·1) | 13/9g | 86/71g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Paton | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/34g | 24% | — | 🏉 10' 39' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 3/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 12' 19' 48' 87' |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 6/109g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 0 in 1g | 13/10g (2·0·0·1·1·3·3·2·1·0) | 12/8g | 114/91g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 100' 96' |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/12g | 17/109g | 20% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 7/15g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 16/40g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/41g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/15g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 20/77g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 16/26g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Tom Hanily | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 80' |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | no games | 15/10g (1·0·2·2·0·0·2·1·3·4) | 7/9g | 2/4g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | no games | 13/10g (2·2·3·0·0·0·3·0·2·1) | 9/7g | 5/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 2/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 33% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 12/13g | 4/5g | 22% | — | 🏉 90' 83' |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | no games | 8/10g (1·2·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 8/8g | 1/2g | 74% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | no games | 8/10g (3·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 7/8g | 1/3g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jack Payne | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/8g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | no games | 15/10g (0·1·0·0·2·3·2·2·1·4) | 4/3g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | no games | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 2/5g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | no games | 10/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·2·0·2·2) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 69% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 97' |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 3/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | no games | 11/10g (1·1·3·0·1·1·1·1·2·0) | 9/7g | 1/2g | 74% | — | 🏉 47' 56' 72' 92' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.96 | 63% | 23 ✓ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.80 | 100% | 15 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 23.5 | $1.80 | 59% | 20 ✓ |
| Matt Roberts | 22.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 19 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey | 20.5 | $1.98 | 57% | 24 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent | 19.5 | $1.94 | 55% | 17 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 19.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 19 ✓ |
| James Rowbottom | 18.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 11 ✓ |
| Justin McInerney | 18.5 | $1.78 | 52% | 23 ✗ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 27.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 10 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 26.5 | $1.82 | 57% | 24 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.92 | 63% | 27 ✗ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 24.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 21 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 23.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 21 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 27 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 18.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 25 ✗ |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.92 | 62% | 17 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)