AI Game Review
Richmond defied the model's 61% prediction for Carlton, a notable upset. The margin model was sharp, predicting Richmond by 9.8 vs the actual margin of 13 points. Richmond trailed 25–50 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 82–69. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 177.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
39%
Carlton
61%
AI Match Overview
Carlton hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Richmond are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Carlton ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Carlton carry a 117-point ELO rating advantage (1592 vs 1475). The margin model predicts Richmond by 9.8 points with a combined total of 158.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.05
Lost ✗
Edge
-33.8%
Line / Spread
Richmond +48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-33.8%
Total Points
Under 177.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | W W L L L | 103.1 |
Carlton | W W L L L | 75.0 |
Avg Conceded
72.9
Richmond
65.3
Carlton
Avg Margin
4.8
Richmond
17.4
Carlton
Disposals
365.6
Richmond
379.7
Carlton
Inside 50s
46.9
Richmond
48.5
Carlton
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Carlton predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 158 · Line: +9.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.49
Team Effectiveness
+0.06
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.