# Richmond v Carlton — AFL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 82 – 69 Carlton

_Richmond roar back to topple Carlton from 25 down._

Half time: 25 – 50 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 39% / Carlton 61% · MCG · Thu, 13 Mar, 07:30 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Toby Nankervis (26' ×2), Tom Lynch (48' Tipped ⚡), Jack Ross (56' ×2), Sam Lalor (70' ×2), Jacob Hopper (83'), Tom Brown (97'), Jacob Bauer (75' Tipped ⚡), Rhyan Mansell (83' Tipped ⚡), Seth Campbell (97') · Carlton: Blake Acres (8' 1st), Matthew Cottrell (14'), Brodie Kemp (21'), Zac Williams (22' Tipped ⚡), Francis Evans (28'), Lachlan Cowan (45'), Sam Walsh (47'), Harry McKay (74' Tipped ⚡), Jack Silvagni (89' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 61% | Lost |
| Richmond | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.8 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Richmond 82–69 Carlton in AFL Round 1 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton led by 27 points at quarter time, 34-7, and stretched that to 25 clear at half time, 50-25. From there Richmond turned the game inside out.

Richmond outscored Carlton 32 to 7 in the third quarter, the biggest shift of the match, to level things at 57-57 heading into the last change. They weren't done. A 25-12 final term sealed it, Richmond running out 82-69 winners at the MCG. Two quarters, two blowout patches, in opposite directions.

The disposal count tells you Carlton had more of the ball. They finished with 404 to Richmond's 351, and led inside 50s 65 to 40, marks 88 to 66, and intercepts 83 to 71. By raw volume, Carlton dominated large stretches of this game. But volume isn't accuracy, and that's where the game turned.

Richmond hit targets at 73.9% efficiency. Carlton managed just 64.7%. That gap explains how a team can go inside 50 25 more times than its opponent and still lose. Carlton kept getting the ball forward, but too much of it went to ground or came back out. Richmond made fewer trips inside 50, seven fewer marks inside there too (7 to 10), but made the ones they had count.

Clearances swung Richmond's way too, 43 to 39, despite Carlton winning the contested possession count 164 to 143. Richmond's edge in tackles, 76 to 70, backs up the read: they were prepared to work harder without the ball to make Carlton's extra possessions less useful. Hit-outs were close, 36 to 35, so neither ruck group had a clear edge there.

Alphr's model had Richmond as 9.8-point favourites going in, with Carlton given a 61% chance based on the pre-match ratings, Richmond 1475 to Carlton 1592. The model also rated Carlton stronger across the park: better midfield (1112 to 923), better forwards (1063 to 1020), better defence (1113 to 996) and better ruck (1055 to 961). On paper, this should have been comfortable for Carlton. It wasn't, and Richmond's final margin of 13 points landed close to what the model predicted, even if the underlying market number, giving Carlton the higher win probability, didn't hold up.

The total also behaved. Alphr's under 177.5 call was right, with the game finishing on 151 combined points, some way under the model's expected total of 158. Richmond also covered the 48.5-point line comfortably.

Form heading in had favoured Richmond on scoring, averaging 103.1 points a game across their last five compared to Carlton's 74.97, even though Carlton's win rate over that stretch was marginally better. Richmond's average losing margin of 4.8 points also suggested a team that competed in close games rather than got blown out, and that showed up again here, just delayed until after half time.

In the end, this was a game where the scoreboard told one story for two quarters and a completely different one for the next two. Carlton had the ball more. Richmond did more with it when it mattered, and that's the difference between a 27-point buffer and a 13-point loss.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 7 | 18 | 32 | 25 | 82 |
| Carlton | 34 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 69 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Disposals | **404** |
| 143 | Contested poss. | **164** |
| **43** | Clearances | 39 |
| 40 | Inside 50s | **65** |
| 66 | Marks | **88** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **10** |
| **76** | Tackles | 70 |
| **36** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| 71 | Intercepts | **83** |
| **73.9%** | Disposal eff. | 64.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Richmond defied the model's 61% prediction for Carlton, a notable upset. The margin model was sharp, predicting Richmond by 9.8 vs the actual margin of 13 points. Richmond trailed 25–50 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 82–69. The model went 2/3 on this match. Richmond covered the 48.5-point line. The under 177.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.05 (edge -33.8%) — model probability 61.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +48.5 @ $1.91 (edge -33.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 10 · Predicted total: 158

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/27g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Armstrong | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.78 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $23.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/37g | 22% | — | 🏉 56' 88' |
| – | Jacob Bauer | KF | no games | 8/7g (0·1·2·1·2·0·2) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.47 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' |
| – | Jacob Blight | DEF | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 6/27g | 24% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | no games | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 17/94g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 30/102g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/80g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 16/128g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | no games | 12/10g (1·1·1·2·3·0·1·0·2·1) | 1/3g | 18/31g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 70' 67' |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | no games | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/12g | 42% | — | 🏉 97' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | no games | 5/6g (0·0·3·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Thomson Dow | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/17g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 22/37g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 22/80g | 14% | — | 🏉 26' 58' |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 14% | — | 🏉 97' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | no games | 23/10g (5·3·3·3·1·2·2·1·3·0) | 44/15g | 140/59g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/11g | 24% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 10/27g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/55g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | no games | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·1) | 1/8g | 13/32g | 46% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·4·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/16g | 12% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | no games | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 5/4g | 2/5g | 41% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/12g | 10/38g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | no games | 24/10g (3·1·3·2·5·3·2·1·1·3) | 15/8g | 89/43g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.38 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | no games | 9/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·4·1) | 7/9g | 32/46g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $2.55 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 89' |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 7/65g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | no games | 8/10g (0·2·0·3·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 9/15g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 58% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | no games | 8/10g (0·1·0·3·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 3/7g | 14/27g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 6% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Lucas Camporeale | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | no games | 5/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 9/27g | 52% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | no games | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 27/35g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/22g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/14g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | no games | 7/10g (1·2·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 6/15g | 38/78g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/10g | 9/60g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | no games | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 14/40g | 20% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 14/25g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | no games | 14/10g (4·3·2·0·1·3·0·0·1·0) | 2/13g | 6/27g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 30 ✗ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.70 | 73% | 19 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 23.5 | $1.95 | 51% | 22 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 21.5 | $1.77 | 62% | 21 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 19.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 28 ✗ |
| Kamdyn McIntosh ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.83 | 90% | 16 ✓ |
| Toby Nankervis | 16.5 | $1.81 | 49% | 21 ✗ |
| Sam Lalor | 14.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 18 ✗ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps | 29.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 32 ✗ |
| Sam Walsh ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 25 ✓ |
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.89 | 72% | 25 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 26 ✗ |
| Adam Saad ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 21 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 21.5 | $1.97 | 47% | 21 ✓ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 28 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)