Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
56%
GWS GIANTS
44%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though GWS GIANTS are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 3.0 points with a combined total of 162.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @2.35
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.4%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.4%
Total Points
Over 155.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | W W W L L | 79.8 |
GWS GIANTS | W W W L L | 76.9 |
Avg Conceded
65.4
Melbourne
82.2
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
3.2
Melbourne
9.1
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
367.8
Melbourne
337.9
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
54.3
Melbourne
55.2
GWS GIANTS
ELO–Market Disagreement
Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1538 vs 1526), but the market favours GWS GIANTS (@1.74).
The model sides with ELO, Melbourne predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Melbourne predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 162 · Line: -3.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.12
Team Effectiveness
+0.05
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
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