AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 97% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 47.7 but the actual margin was 26 points. Total score prediction of 195 was close to the actual 196, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
97%
Essendon
3%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 97%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Hawthorn carry a 68-point ELO rating advantage (1555 vs 1487). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 47.7 points with a combined total of 195.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.2%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -22.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.2%
Total Points
Over 170.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 80.3 |
Essendon | W L L L L | 93.8 |
Avg Conceded
94.5
Hawthorn
86.1
Essendon
Avg Margin
22.7
Hawthorn
5.5
Essendon
Disposals
369.3
Hawthorn
336.3
Essendon
Inside 50s
46.2
Hawthorn
48.0
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
97%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 48 points
Predicted total: 195 · Line: +47.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
0.00
Team Effectiveness
+0.19
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.