# Hawthorn v Essendon — AFL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 111 – 85 Essendon

_Hawthorn see off Essendon._

Half time: 64 – 29 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 97% / Essendon 3% · MCG · Fri, 14 Mar, 07:40 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Blake Hardwick (11' ×2), Jack Ginnivan (13' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (17' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Massimo DAmbrosio (21'), Mabior Chol (22' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Will Day (53'), Dylan Moore (91' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Connor Macdonald (69' Tipped ⚡), Josh Weddle (78'), Finn Maginness (94') · Essendon: Isaac Kako (10' 1st), Kyle Langford (42' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Duursma (45' ×2), Zach Merrett (47' ×2), Harry Jones (76'), Archie Perkins (86'), Jye Caldwell (71'), Jade Gresham (76' Tipped ⚡), Sam Draper (83')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 97% | Won |
| Essendon | 3% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 47.7 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Hawthorn 111–85 Essendon in AFL Round 1 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hawthorn led by 27 points at the first change and never came off it, closing out 111 to 85 at the MCG. But the shape of that scoreboard tells its own story: this was a laugher early, then a genuine contest by the end.

The gap was 37 to 10 after the first quarter, then out to 64 to 29 by half time, Hawthorn adding 27 in that second term to Essendon's 19. That's a 35 point buffer at the main break, built almost entirely in the opening 20 minutes.

From there Essendon actually started winning the footy. Quarter three went 24 points to 21 in the Bombers' favour, and the last quarter was even more one sided, Essendon piling on 32 to Hawthorn's 26. Add it up and Essendon outscored Hawthorn across the second half. Doesn't matter. You can't make up 35 points chasing quarters, only games.

Look at the stat sheet and you'd think Essendon won this. They had 392 disposals to 357, won clearances 50 to 31, hit-outs 54 to 34, tackles 78 to 58, and went inside 50 ten more times, 58 to 48. On raw pressure and ball use numbers, that's a dominant performance. It just came with nothing to show for it where it counted.

Hawthorn's answer was efficiency. They used the footy at 78.2% compared to Essendon's 71.5%, and inside their forward 50 the gap was stark: 16 marks to 6. Essendon kept pumping the ball forward, Hawthorn kept marking it and scoring from it. That's the whole game in two numbers.

It's also a reversal of what the pre-match ratings suggested. Hawthorn went in rated well clear everywhere, forwards 1093 to 951, ruck 1078 to 935, midfield 1059 to 955. On the night Essendon's ruck and midfield groups actually won their battles on paper, out-hitting and out-clearing Hawthorn comfortably. The form lines pointed the same way for Hawthorn regardless, three wins from their last five to Essendon's one, and an average winning margin of 22.7 built into that recent form. Essendon had been scoring more freely coming in, 93.8 points a game to Hawthorn's 80.3, but conceding plenty too.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 37 | 27 | 21 | 26 | 111 |
| Essendon | 10 | 19 | 24 | 32 | 85 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 357 | Disposals | **392** |
| 126 | Contested poss. | **150** |
| 31 | Clearances | **50** |
| 48 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| **103** | Marks | 93 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| 58 | Tackles | **78** |
| 34 | Hit-outs | **54** |
| **64** | Intercepts | 59 |
| **78.2%** | Disposal eff. | 71.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 97% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 47.7 but the actual margin was 26 points. Total score prediction of 195 was close to the actual 196, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.30 (edge +20.2%) — model probability 97.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -22.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 48 · Predicted total: 195

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Will Day | MID | 3 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·3) | 0/5g | 3/24g | 22% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 2 in 1g | 12/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·4·0·1·2) | 9/6g | 41/41g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 91' 95' 87' |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 5/14g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 1 in 1g | 14/10g (1·4·2·1·0·0·3·2·0·1) | 1/3g | 20/27g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 6/40g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 3/19g | 24% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 11/30g | 50% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (3·0·2·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 2/8g | 28/68g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 8/9g | 10/25g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 1 in 1g | 14/10g (1·2·2·2·1·1·3·0·1·1) | 5/4g | 22/22g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 82' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 6/66g | 12% | — | 🏉 11' 61' |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/13g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 9/41g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 0 in 1g | 13/10g (2·2·2·0·2·0·2·1·2·0) | 12/6g | 51/38g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 40' |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/39g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 14/56g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 3/13g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/18g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/17g | 28% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·2·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/15g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 0 in 1g | 19/10g (1·3·2·0·0·3·3·4·3·0) | 0/1g | 13/8g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 27' 58' |
| – | Sam Frost | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 3/73g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 6/47g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/4g | 13/25g | 32% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | no games | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 5/12g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 12/41g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Tsatas | MID | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Jones | DEF | no games | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 3/4g | 14/15g | 68% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | no games | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·2·0·3·0·0·1) | 9/8g | 29/22g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.68 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/31g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | no games | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/5g | 11/22g | 40% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | no games | 15/10g (2·1·2·2·2·0·2·0·1·3) | 8/9g | 45/45g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 7/37g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | no games | 9/10g (0·2·1·0·2·0·1·3·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | no games | 10/10g (0·0·0·4·0·0·2·0·3·1) | 2/3g | 18/24g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Nick Bryan | RUC | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | no games | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·3·1·1) | 3/4g | 11/22g | 56% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | no games | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 7/25g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 5/10g | 44% | — | 🏉 45' 85' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | no games | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/14g | 28/71g | 46% | — | 🏉 47' 92' |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | no games | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 25.5 | $1.92 | 54% | 25 ✓ |
| Will Day ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 85% | 16 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.82 | 73% | 9 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 28 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 21.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 24 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 19.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 22 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 18.5 | $1.94 | 51% | 21 ✗ |
| Jack Scrimshaw | 18.5 | $1.85 | 46% | 4 ✓ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 28.5 | $1.80 | 59% | 26 ✓ |
| Dylan Shiel ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.85 | 74% | 23 ✓ |
| Jordan Ridley | 23.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 9 ✓ |
| Nic Martin | 23.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 24 ✗ |
| Jye Caldwell | 22.5 | $1.88 | 42% | 36 ✗ |
| Elijah Tsatas ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 95% | 18 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 20.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 19 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 20.5 | $1.95 | 42% | 27 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)