AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 91% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 25.4 but the actual margin was 78 points. The game's 216 points came in 35 points higher than the predicted 181. Geelong Cats led 76–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 78. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
91%
Fremantle
9%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 91%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Fremantle. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Geelong Cats carry a 110-point ELO rating advantage (1632 vs 1522). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 25.4 points with a combined total of 181.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.2%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.2%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWWLL | 110.6 |
Fremantle | WLLLL | 84.0 |
Avg Conceded
78.6
Geelong Cats
85.2
Fremantle
Avg Margin
32.0
Geelong Cats
-1.2
Fremantle
Disposals
344.4
Geelong Cats
358.8
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
91%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 25 points
Predicted total: 181 · Line: +25.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.36
Team Effectiveness
+0.37
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.