# Geelong Cats v Fremantle — AFL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 147 – 69 Fremantle

_Geelong Cats put Fremantle to the sword._

Half time: 76 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 91% / Fremantle 9% · GMHBA Stadium · Sat, 15 Mar, 01:20 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Jack Bowes (10'), Oliver Henry (18' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Oliver Dempsey (29' ×2), Patrick Dangerfield (32' ×2), Brad Close (36'), Max Holmes (39' ×2), Tyson Stengle (53' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jeremy Cameron (63' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (34m 41s)Tom Atkins (77'), Shannon Neale (79' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Smith (94'), Sam De Koning (97') · Fremantle: Andrew Brayshaw (8' 1st), Josh Treacy (42' Tipped ⚡), Michael Frederick (69' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Banfield (71'), Murphy Reid (91' ×4), Brennan Cox (85')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 91% | Won |
| Fremantle | 9% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 25.4 predicted → 78 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 147–69 Fremantle in AFL Round 1 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong Cats beat Fremantle 147-69 at GMHBA Stadium, a 78-point margin that flatters the Cats more than the game itself did. For a stretch in the third term, this was a genuine contest. At three-quarter time the score sat at 84-63, just 21 points in it, before Geelong blew the game apart in the final quarter.

The pattern by term tells the real story. Geelong led 34-7 at quarter time and stretched that to 76-22 by half time, an emphatic opening two quarters. Then Fremantle hit back hard, outscoring Geelong 41-8 in the third quarter alone to drag the margin back from 54 points to 21. It was, briefly, a different game. Geelong shut that down immediately, piling on 63 points to 6 in the last quarter to finish with the biggest winning margin of their season by a distance.

The underlying numbers back up a comfortable Geelong win, even if they don't fully explain the final scoreline. The Cats won contested possession 143 to 129 and laid 89 tackles to Fremantle's 59, both signs of a side controlling territory and pressure. They went inside 50 55 times to 43 and made it count, taking 17 marks inside forward 50 to Fremantle's 8. Geelong also read the ball in defence better, picking up 65 intercepts to 56.

Disposals were close, 361 to 360 in Fremantle's favour, and Fremantle actually won clearances 41 to 39. That's the number that complicates the story further: on two of the more basic midfield indicators, Fremantle held their own. Where Geelong pulled clear was efficiency and repeat forward pressure rather than raw ball use.

Fremantle's other point of difference was the ruck. They won hit-outs 57 to 35, a comfortable advantage that never translated into scoreboard pressure the way it might have. Geelong's 110 marks to 55 suggests they were simply cleaner with what they had, regardless of who was winning the taps.

Going in, Alphr's ratings had Geelong stronger in midfield (1089 to 1045), forwards (1072 to 1065) and ruck (1063 to 1030), with Fremantle rated better in defence (1069 to 1019). Fremantle also arrived with the better recent form, a 96.0 point average over their last five games compared to Geelong's 73.4, and fewer points conceded on average. On paper this looked like it could be tighter than it turned out.

Alphr's model had Geelong as clear favourites, giving them a 91% chance to win, and got that right. The margin was a different matter. The model predicted Geelong by 25.4 points; the actual margin was 78. It also undercooked the total, tipping a combined 181 points against an actual 216, out by 35. Three from three on the picks that mattered, but the third quarter reminder from Fremantle is worth remembering: scorelines like 147-69 can still hide twenty minutes where the away side was very much alive.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 34 | 42 | 8 | 63 | 147 |
| Fremantle | 7 | 15 | 41 | 6 | 69 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 360 | Disposals | **361** |
| **143** | Contested poss. | 129 |
| 39 | Clearances | **41** |
| **55** | Inside 50s | 43 |
| **110** | Marks | 55 |
| **17** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| **89** | Tackles | 59 |
| 35 | Hit-outs | **57** |
| **65** | Intercepts | 56 |
| **73.7%** | Disposal eff. | 72.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 91% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 25.4 but the actual margin was 78 points. The game's 216 points came in 35 points higher than the predicted 181. Geelong Cats led 76–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 78. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.42 (edge +20.2%) — model probability 90.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -16.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 25 · Predicted total: 181

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 0/3g | 28% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | no games | 7/10g (4·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 38/34g | 62% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | no games | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·3·2) | 2/7g | 36/44g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.80 AI 57% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/5g | 4/17g | 32% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 13/51g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | no games | 35/10g (4·3·1·2·6·1·3·9·4·2) | 25/13g | 86/34g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 96% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 63' 87' 99' 103' |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/16g | 19/87g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/41g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 9/28g | 36% | — | 🏉 39' 50' |
| – | Mitch Knevitt | FWD | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | no games | 9/10g (0·1·1·3·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 11/13g | 57% | — | 🏉 29' 89' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | no games | 16/10g (0·1·1·2·1·1·1·4·1·4) | 7/3g | 29/18g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 90' 101' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 20/15g | 63/62g | 52% | — | 🏉 32' 66' |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/25g | 10% | — | 🏉 97' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | no games | 14/10g (1·2·2·1·1·2·1·2·2·0) | 2/1g | 12/8g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 7/42g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/58g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | no games | 15/10g (0·2·1·3·1·0·2·2·4·0) | 6/4g | 49/25g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' 61' 81' |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/35g | 14% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | no games | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/2g | 36% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | no games | 6/10g (3·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 46% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Brandon Walker | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 8% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | no games | 10/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·3·2·0) | 5/6g | 0/2g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | no games | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 1/2g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/12g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | no games | 25/10g (1·3·2·2·2·5·1·3·3·3) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| – | Joshua Draper | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | no games | 17/10g (0·3·1·1·4·1·4·1·1·1) | 5/3g | 1/1g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 81% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | no games | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Reidy | RUC | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | no games | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·2·1·1·1) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | no games | 13/10g (1·1·2·0·0·3·1·1·3·1) | 7/5g | 4/2g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 91' 94' 96' 97' |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | no games | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 3/6g | 2/2g | 56% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 24 ✓ |
| Jhye Clark ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.97 | 99% | 5 ✓ |
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 32 ✗ |
| Tom Stewart | 23.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 23 ✓ |
| Jack Bowes ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 9 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.89 | 70% | 14 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 18.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 21 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.81 | 67% | 10 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries | 17.5 | $1.85 | 58% | 23 ✗ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 27 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 29.5 | $1.88 | 50% | 26 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.97 | 67% | 23 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 22.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 18 ✓ |
| Matthew Johnson ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 27 ✗ |
| Jeremy Sharp | 17.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 19 ✗ |
| Jaeger O'Meara | 16.5 | $1.87 | 39% | 31 ✗ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | 16.5 | $1.97 | 55% | 25 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)