# Collingwood v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 136 – 45 Port Adelaide

_Collingwood demolish Port Adelaide._

Half time: 61 – 27 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 84% / Port Adelaide 16% · MCG · Sat, 15 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Tim Membrey (9' ×4 1st Tipped 🎯), Brody Mihocek (19' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Lipinski (27'), Daniel McStay (35' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jamie Elliott (42' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Steele Sidebottom (48'), Brayden Maynard (74' ×2), Nick Daicos (81'), Lachlan Sullivan (88'), Lachie Schultz (91'), Bobby Hill (77' ×2) · Port Adelaide: Jordon Sweet (25'), Willie Rioli (33' Tipped ⚡), Darcy Byrne-Jones (94'), Jason Horne-Francis (81')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 84% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 17.6 predicted → 91 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 136–45 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 1 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood 136, Port Adelaide 45. Any margin north of ninety points at the MCG tells you the contest was over well before the siren, and this one built exactly that way, quarter by quarter, until Port Adelaide simply had no answer left.

Twenty-one points up at quarter time, 41-20, was already a decent start. By half time it was 61-27, the margin holding rather than blowing out. Then came the third quarter, Collingwood piling on 44 points to Port's 8 to push it out to 105-35 at the last change. The final quarter, 31 to 10, was academic by comparison. Once that third-term burst hit, the gap was never getting closed.

The disposal numbers back up what the scoreboard was doing. Collingwood finished with 388 disposals to 365 and hit targets at 75.0% compared with Port's 70.8%. That efficiency gap matters more than the raw count, because it's the difference between moving the ball with purpose and just having it. Sixty-five inside 50s to 48 gave Collingwood far more chances to convert, and 17 marks inside 50 to 12 shows they were taking the chances cleanly rather than spraying entries forward and hoping.

Defensively, Collingwood smothered it. Sixty-nine tackles to 43 and 79 intercepts to 66 are the numbers of a side that had its opponent under constant pressure, never letting Port settle into any rhythm going the other way.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 41 | 20 | 44 | 31 | 136 |
| Port Adelaide | 20 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 45 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **388** | Disposals | 365 |
| **130** | Contested poss. | 123 |
| 36 | Clearances | **39** |
| **65** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| **91** | Marks | 84 |
| **17** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| **69** | Tackles | 43 |
| 34 | Hit-outs | **37** |
| **79** | Intercepts | 66 |
| **75.0%** | Disposal eff. | 70.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 17.6 but the actual margin was 91 points. Collingwood led 61–27 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 91. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.58 (edge +21.0%) — model probability 84.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 18 · Predicted total: 170

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 2 in 1g | 18/10g (0·3·2·3·3·0·2·2·1·2) | 17/8g | 130/79g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 80' 75' |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 2 in 1g | 12/10g (2·1·2·1·1·1·1·0·1·2) | 17/12g | 188/119g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' 61' |
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 1 in 1g | 11/10g (1·0·0·2·2·1·2·0·2·1) | 3/4g | 43/37g | 78% | — | 🏉 77' 87' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 1 in 1g | 16/10g (0·1·0·5·2·1·3·1·2·1) | 11/10g | 38/16g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 11' 16' 85' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 7/5g | 37/46g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 10/126g | 6% | — | 🏉 74' 75' |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/16g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 0 in 1g | 15/10g (2·1·2·2·1·3·1·1·2·0) | 8/11g | 30/28g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' 67' 72' |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·2·0) | 3/6g | 35/55g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 39/100g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/15g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/61g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (0·3·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/15g | 48/139g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 56/153g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 30/72g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 0 in 1g | 11/10g (1·4·1·0·2·1·0·2·0·0) | 5/5g | 24/20g | 66% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | no games | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·2·0) | 3/4g | 22/44g | 58% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 7/8g | 24/44g | 44% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Reef McInnes | DEF | 0 in 1g | 13/10g (3·1·1·1·3·2·1·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 11/13g | 65% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 79/170g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 11/16g | 93/168g | 18% | — | 🏉 48' |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | no games | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 5/8g | 7/13g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | no games | 10/10g (0·1·2·1·1·2·1·0·2·0) | 0/11g | 6/18g | 68% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | no games | 13/10g (2·0·2·2·1·2·2·0·0·2) | 2/6g | 3/5g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 67% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | no games | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 1/6g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | no games | 12/10g (2·0·1·1·2·2·2·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 5/6g | 74% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Jeremy Finlayson | KF | no games | 9/10g (2·3·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 12/7g | 20/15g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | no games | 6/9g (1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 24% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | no games | 25/10g (3·0·5·3·3·4·2·1·3·1) | 5/5g | 10/6g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 88% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/16g | 8/22g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Burton | DEF | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/11g | 6/34g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | no games | 13/10g (0·3·1·2·2·2·0·0·2·1) | 9/9g | 8/13g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | no games | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 12/16g | 19/24g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/12g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | no games | 16/10g (0·2·1·4·0·2·3·1·2·1) | 9/8g | 8/11g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 28.5 | $1.88 | 48% | 26 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos | 25.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Dan Houston | 23.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 27 ✗ |
| Harry Perryman ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.97 | 74% | 13 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 19.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 26 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 24 ✗ |
| Brayden Maynard ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 14 ✓ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Rozee ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.95 | 77% | 35 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines | 25.5 | $1.93 | 60% | 34 ✗ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 25 ✗ |
| Willem Drew ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell | 20.5 | $1.83 | 60% | 23 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 20.5 | $1.88 | 56% | 16 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman | 17.5 | $1.77 | 63% | 16 ✓ |
| Travis Boak | 17.5 | $1.85 | 36% | 28 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)