AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 95% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 41.6 but the actual margin was 63 points. The game's 207 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 176. Adelaide Crows led 64–27 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 63. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
95%
St Kilda
5%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 95%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 41.6 points with a combined total of 176.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.3%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -21.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.3%
Total Points
Over 160.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | W W W W L | 90.9 |
St Kilda | W W W L L | 76.4 |
Avg Conceded
91.4
Adelaide Crows
68.2
St Kilda
Avg Margin
14.4
Adelaide Crows
15.2
St Kilda
Disposals
362.1
Adelaide Crows
363.7
St Kilda
Inside 50s
56.3
Adelaide Crows
45.9
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
95%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 42 points
Predicted total: 176 · Line: +41.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.10
Team Effectiveness
+0.41
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.