# Adelaide Crows v St Kilda — AFL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 135 – 72 St Kilda

_Adelaide Crows swoop on St Kilda._

Half time: 64 – 27 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 95% / St Kilda 5% · Adelaide Oval · Sun, 16 Mar, 12:35 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Matt Crouch (7' 1st), Riley Thilthorpe (9' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Isaac Cumming (12' ×2), Darcy Fogarty (18' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jordan Dawson (31' ×2), Josh Rachele (46' Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (50' Tipped ⚡), James Peatling (71'), Izak Rankine (73' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Alex Neal-Bullen (76'), Ben Keays (83' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (32m 18s)Josh Rachele (66'), Jake Soligo (69') · St Kilda: Max Hall (20' ×2), Jack Higgins (30' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (37'), Mason Wood (69' ×2), Bradley Hill (96'), Hugo Garcia (74'), Zaine Cordy (94')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 95% | Won |
| St Kilda | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 41.6 predicted → 63 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 135–72 St Kilda in AFL Round 1 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two different ideas about how to play footy turned up at Adelaide Oval, and only one of them worked. St Kilda came in rated stronger in the forward line, in defence and in the ruck, according to the positional strength numbers. Adelaide had them covered in exactly one area: the midfield, 1001 to 972. By full time none of the pre-match ratings mattered much, because Adelaide Crows put 135 on the board to St Kilda's 72 and did it by controlling the footy rather than chasing it.

The scoreboard shows it was over early and stayed that way. Adelaide led 44-14 at quarter time, 64-27 at half time, then 109-49 at three-quarter time. St Kilda never found a way to close the gap at any change, and the last quarter added another 26 points to Adelaide's tally against St Kilda's 23, the margin holding firm at 63 points by the final siren.

The disposal count tells the story of how that gap opened up and stayed open. Adelaide finished with 429 disposals to St Kilda's 350, and did it at 75.5% efficiency against the Saints' 67.5%. That's not just more footy, it's cleaner footy: fewer clangers, more of it going where it was meant to. Adelaide also won the contested ball 141 to 138, a narrow edge but an edge nonetheless, and turned it into clearances, winning that count 46 to 42.

Ruck was supposed to be a St Kilda strength on paper, rated 1042 to Adelaide's 963 coming in. It didn't show up on the day. Adelaide won hit-outs 53 to 36, a gap that let their midfielders set up first use again and again. Combined with the clearance edge, that's a side getting first hands on the ball far more often than the ratings suggested they should.

Marking told a similar tale. Adelaide took 102 marks to St Kilda's 79, and inside the forward 50 it was 12 to 10, a smaller gap but one more mark inside the arc than the Saints managed despite fewer overall entries. Adelaide went inside 50 59 times to St Kilda's 52, not an overwhelming disparity, but enough repeat entries at that efficiency to keep piling on scoreboard pressure.

St Kilda's one clear win on the stat sheet was intercepts, 74 to 68, which lines up with a defence rated well above Adelaide's on paper. But turning the ball over in Adelaide's favour didn't translate to scoreboard impact, because the Crows kept winning it back through tackles too, laying 60 to St Kilda's 52.

Adelaide came into the game rated level with St Kilda overall, at 1518 apiece, with the model expecting an Adelaide win by 41.6 points. The final margin blew past that, 63 points, on a day when the combined score of 207 ran well above the 176 the model had pencilled in. Whatever St Kilda's game plan was built around, ambition without the ball apparently isn't much of a plan. Adelaide's was simpler: get it, keep it, use it well. On this afternoon, that was more than enough.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 44 | 20 | 45 | 26 | 135 |
| St Kilda | 14 | 13 | 22 | 23 | 72 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| **429** | Disposals | 350 |
| **141** | Contested poss. | 138 |
| **46** | Clearances | 42 |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 52 |
| **102** | Marks | 79 |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| **60** | Tackles | 52 |
| **53** | Hit-outs | 36 |
| 68 | Intercepts | **74** |
| **75.5%** | Disposal eff. | 67.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 95% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 41.6 but the actual margin was 63 points. The game's 207 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 176. Adelaide Crows led 64–27 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 63. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.30 (edge +18.3%) — model probability 95.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 42 · Predicted total: 176

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 7/10g | 4/12g | 38% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | no games | 20/10g (1·2·4·1·5·1·1·3·1·1) | 4/6g | 43/61g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | no games | 3/7g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | no games | 20/10g (2·3·2·1·4·0·1·5·2·0) | 4/5g | 93/58g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 52' 86' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | no games | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/8g | 26% | — | 🏉 12' 70' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | no games | 21/10g (1·4·3·3·1·2·2·2·1·2) | 6/4g | 46/23g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' 93' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | no games | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 14/34g | 30% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/7g | 17/41g | 30% | — | 🏉 31' 78' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | no games | 16/10g (2·1·2·0·1·3·1·3·2·1) | 3/3g | 41/32g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sholl | MID | no games | 5/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 11/43g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matt Crouch | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 22/85g | 8% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/26g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/35g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/31g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 7/66g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | no games | 16/10g (1·0·0·2·2·2·3·2·1·3) | 7/4g | 34/31g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 22' 91' |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 18/125g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sid Draper | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | no games | 15/10g (1·2·0·2·2·0·3·2·1·2) | 35/13g | 264/116g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 18/55g | 18% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | no games | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | no games | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·3·1·1·0) | 2/1g | 5/3g | 65% | — | — |
| – | Arie Schoenmaker | DEF | no games | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/10g | 9/16g | 20% | — | 🏉 96' |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | no games | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 49% | — | — |
| – | Harry Boyd | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | no games | 1/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 11% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | no games | 18/10g (5·1·3·0·1·2·0·1·3·2) | 3/5g | 8/8g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' 80' |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | no games | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/12g | 1/15g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/13g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | no games | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·3·0·0·2·0) | 2/8g | 2/12g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | no games | 11/10g (1·1·1·2·3·0·0·0·1·2) | 11/8g | 8/7g | 54% | — | 🏉 69' 95' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 20' 56' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | no games | 13/10g (0·3·2·0·0·1·2·3·1·1) | 1/6g | 4/9g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 2/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zaine Cordy | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 1/11g | 20% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 1/7g | 18% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Crouch | 28.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 31 ✗ |
| Rory Laird | 28.5 | $1.83 | 61% | 29 ✗ |
| Jordan Dawson | 26.5 | $1.65 | 67% | 27 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 29 ✗ |
| Lachlan Sholl | 22.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 22 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.83 | 80% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 75% | 25 ✗ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 21 ✗ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Macrae ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.95 | 90% | 34 ✗ |
| Jack Sinclair | 27.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 22 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.75 | 68% | 27 ✗ |
| Jack Steele | 24.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 19 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie | 17.5 | $1.91 | 43% | 19 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 17.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 6 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)