AFL | Opening Round

alphr.com.au

SYD
Sydney Swans
VS
HAW
Hawthorn
SCG • TUESDAY 24 FEB, 10:45 PM

AI Game Review

Hawthorn defied the model's 80% prediction for Sydney Swans — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 22.4 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 174 was close to the actual 172 — within 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 169.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability

AI Win Probability

80%Sydney SwansFavourite

Sydney Swans

80%

Hawthorn

20%

✨

AI Match Overview

Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hawthorn. Hawthorn are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Sydney Swans counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 83-point ELO rating advantage (1669 vs 1586). The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 22.4 points with a combined total of 174.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sydney Swans to Win @2.00

Lost ✗

Edge

+30.3%

✗

Line / Spread

Sydney Swans +3.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+30.3%

✗

Total Points

Over 169.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Sydney Swans
WWWWL
92.4
Hawthorn
WWWWL
116.8

Avg Conceded

82.0

Sydney Swans

57.8

Hawthorn

Avg Margin

10.4

Sydney Swans

59.0

Hawthorn

Disposals

351.8

Sydney Swans

390.4

Hawthorn

Inside 50s

50.0

Sydney Swans

50.0

Hawthorn

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SYD
1586Overall1669
HAW
ELO difference: -83 in favour of Hawthorn

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1139Midfield1172
Best: 1203HAW +33Best: 1210
954Forwards1083
Best: 1085HAW +129Best: 1170
1061Defence1213
Best: 1203HAW +152Best: 1308
1260Ruck1294
Best: 1260HAW +34Best: 1294

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SYD
Stat
HAW
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
92.4pts
Avg Score
116.8pts
82.0pts
Avg Conceded
57.8pts
10.4pts
Avg Margin
59.0pts
351.8
Disposals
390.4
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
51.0
Tackles
62.6
35.2
Clearances
40.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Hawthorn
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Hawthorn
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Hawthorn
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Hawthorn
6
Scoring Form8.0%
Hawthorn
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Swans

Model Confidence

80%

Sydney Swans predicted to win by 22 points

Predicted total: 174 · Line: +22.4

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.16

Team Effectiveness

-0.14

4
Elite
5
Hard Worker
8
Efficient
6
Poor Game
Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

1/3 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props