# Sydney Swans v Hawthorn — AFL Opening Round 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 76 – 96 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn see off Sydney Swans._

Half time: 40 – 60 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 80% / Hawthorn 20% · SCG · Fri, 07 Mar, 07:40 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Chad Warner (4' ×2 1st), Joel Amartey (6' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Taylor Adams (14'), Tom Papley (20' Tipped ⚡), James Rowbottom (65'), Tom McCartin (80'), Will Hayward (83' Tipped ⚡), Nick Blakey (94') · Hawthorn: Dylan Moore (8' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Lloyd Meek (11' ×2), Jai Newcombe (16'), Will Day (30' ×3), Karl Amon (48'), Mabior Chol (71' Tipped ⚡), Conor Nash (90'), Finn Maginness (71'), Connor Macdonald (81'), James Sicily (90')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 80% | Lost |
| Hawthorn | 20% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 22.4 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Opening Round 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Sydney Swans 76–96 Hawthorn in AFL Opening Round at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at the SCG had Hawthorn up 60 to 40, a lead built largely in the second term where they outscored Sydney 27 to 13. Sydney's clearance work had been non-existent to that point, and it was showing on the scoreboard.

The Swans came back at it in the third. They put on 31 points to Hawthorn's 16, cutting the margin to five at the last change, 76-71. For a stretch there it looked like the momentum had swung and Sydney were about to run down a side that had dominated the first half.

It didn't last. Hawthorn scored 20 in the final quarter to Sydney's 5, running out 96-76 winners. Whatever Sydney found in the third quarter, Hawthorn found more of in the fourth, and the final term is where the game was actually decided.

The clearance count explains why Hawthorn could afford the wobble. They won it 47 to 33, and backed that up with 58 inside 50s to Sydney's 40. Getting the ball forward that often meant they could have an ordinary quarter and still not be under real pressure on the scoreboard.

Inside forward 50, Hawthorn were also far cleaner: 12 marks to Sydney's 5. That's a side converting entries into genuine chances at more than double the rate, and it shows in the final margin. Marks overall went 89 to 71 in Hawthorn's favour too, with their disposal count at 331 to Sydney's 321, even though Sydney were technically the more efficient side by hand and foot, 72.9% to 71.0%. Cleaner user of the footy, just fewer chances to use it.

Sydney did win one battle outright: hit-outs, 41 to 33, which is a little odd given Hawthorn came into the game rated the stronger ruck unit, 1059 to 1014. It didn't matter much.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 27 | 13 | 31 | 5 | 76 |
| Hawthorn | 33 | 27 | 16 | 20 | 96 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 321 | Disposals | **331** |
| 121 | Contested poss. | **133** |
| 33 | Clearances | **47** |
| 40 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| 71 | Marks | **89** |
| 5 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| 54 | Tackles | **59** |
| **41** | Hit-outs | 33 |
| 62 | Intercepts | 62 |
| **72.9%** | Disposal eff. | 71.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Hawthorn defied the model's 80% prediction for Sydney Swans, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 22.4 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 174 was close to the actual 172, within 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 169.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $2.00 (edge +30.3%) — model probability 80.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 22 · Predicted total: 174

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | no games | 3/9g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Ben Paton | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/33g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 3/18g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | no games | 11/10g (2·2·1·0·0·2·1·0·2·1) | 3/3g | 37/42g | 72% | — | 🏉 4' 76' |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | no games | 2/9g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 22% | — | 🏉 4' 76' |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/19g | 6/108g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | no games | 13/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·3·3·2·1) | 11/10g | 114/90g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/16g | 17/108g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/14g | 24% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 18/49g | 26% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | no games | 11/10g (0·2·1·0·0·2·2·1·3·0) | 7/3g | 36/26g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 43' 73' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 16/39g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/40g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/14g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 20/54g | 10% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 20/76g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | no games | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 16/25g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Adams | MID | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 1/13g | 42% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Tom Hanily | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 15/56g | 0% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | no games | 20/10g (4·1·2·2·1·4·0·2·3·1) | 17/10g | 138/81g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | no games | 13/10g (0·2·1·1·3·3·0·2·0·1) | 10/9g | 85/70g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | no games | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | no games | 13/10g (0·1·4·2·1·0·0·3·2·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 62% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | no games | 12/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·2·4·0·1) | 5/5g | 5/4g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 25' |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | no games | 6/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | no games | 14/10g (1·2·2·2·0·2·0·2·1·2) | 3/4g | 2/2g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | no games | 7/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 48% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | no games | 8/10g (0·3·0·2·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 3/10g | 3/5g | 22% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | James Worpel | MID | no games | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 3/6g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/8g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/3g | 16% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 11' 61' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | no games | 15/10g (2·1·2·2·2·1·1·3·0·1) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | no games | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | no games | 19/10g (0·1·3·2·0·0·3·3·4·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Sam Frost | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Day | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 18% | — | 🏉 30' 53' 63' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.80 | 68% | 21 ✓ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.94 | 100% | 10 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 23.5 | $1.94 | 58% | 21 ✓ |
| Matt Roberts | 22.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 20.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 19 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey | 19.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 26 ✗ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.89 | 63% | 16 ✓ |
| Oliver Florent | 19.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 16 ✓ |
| Justin McInerney | 18.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 16 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 25.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 19 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.93 | 67% | 19 ✓ |
| Will Day ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 75% | 26 ✗ |
| Karl Amon | 21.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 27 ✗ |
| James Worpel | 21.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 11 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore | 19.5 | $1.89 | 54% | 18 ✓ |
| Jack Scrimshaw | 18.5 | $1.88 | 46% | 18 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey | 18.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)