AI Game Review
Hawthorn defied the model's 80% prediction for Sydney Swans, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 22.4 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 174 was close to the actual 172, within 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 169.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
80%
Hawthorn
20%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hawthorn. Hawthorn are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Sydney Swans counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 52-point ELO rating advantage (1548 vs 1496). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 22.4 points with a combined total of 174.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @2.00
Lost ✗
Edge
+30.3%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans +3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+30.3%
Total Points
Over 169.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W W L L L | 101.2 |
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 93.0 |
Avg Conceded
98.5
Sydney Swans
82.4
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
-5.8
Sydney Swans
10.5
Hawthorn
Disposals
366.0
Sydney Swans
340.4
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
49.4
Sydney Swans
53.9
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
80%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 22 points
Predicted total: 174 · Line: +22.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.16
Team Effectiveness
-0.14
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.