# GWS GIANTS v Collingwood — AFL Opening Round 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 104 – 52 Collingwood

_GWS GIANTS stand tall over Collingwood._

Half time: 55 – 32 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 82% / Collingwood 18% · ENGIE Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Xavier OHalloran (12' ×2), Callum Brown (30' ×2), Max Gruzewski (32' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Finn Callaghan (33' ×2), Callan Ward (60'), Toby Greene (68' Tipped ⚡), Darcy Jones (92' ×2), Brent Daniels (76'), James Leake (86') · Collingwood: Bobby Hill (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Brody Mihocek (44' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jamie Elliott (46' ×2), Tim Membrey (73' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 82% | Won |
| Collingwood | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 23.2 predicted → 52 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Opening Round 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

GWS GIANTS 104–52 Collingwood in AFL Opening Round at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at ENGIE Stadium had GWS GIANTS up 55 to 32, and Collingwood's home away from home form line suggested a fightback was coming. It never really landed. By three-quarter time the margin had only nudged out slightly, 63 to 37, Collingwood actually holding their own in that third term. Then the last quarter arrived and the game fell apart for them completely: GWS piled on 41 points to Collingwood's 15 in the final stanza to close it out 104-52.

That's a 52-point win, and it's worth sitting with how it was built. Collingwood were not run off the park in the areas you'd expect. They won clearances 40 to 36, won contested possession 118 to 139 in their favour, and flogged GWS at the stoppages with 47 hit-outs to 23. On paper that's a midfield and ruck performance that should have kept them in it, and it lines up with the pre-match ratings that had Collingwood's midfield (1000) and ruck (961) rated above GWS (996 and 952 respectively).

The problem was what happened after they won it. GWS's disposal efficiency sat at 74.9% against Collingwood's 66.9%, and that gap is where the score blew out. Winning the ball back only matters if you do something with it, and GWS turned their taller share of the footy, 93 marks to 87, plus 64 intercepts to 56, into scoreboard pressure. GWS also laid 59 tackles to Collingwood's 39, which tracks with a defensive rating (1007) that was rated well clear of Collingwood's (964) coming in.

Inside 50s were basically even, 55 for Collingwood to 54 for GWS, and Collingwood even edged marks inside 50, 9 to 8. So the entries were there. What wasn't there was conversion, and that's the story of a side that had the ball more often in the guts of the ground but couldn't turn it into scoreboard pressure once GWS clamped down.

Collingwood's recent form had them scoring at 105 a game and winning more often across their last five than GWS's 79.6 average and leaner recent record. None of that showed up here. GWS's own defensive form, conceding 89.9 on average, held up against a side better placed on paper to hurt them.

Alphr's model backed GWS at 82% to win, and that call held up fine. The margin was the miss: 23.2 points projected, 52 delivered, more than double the tip. The total was off too, 189 forecast against a 156-point result, so this one played out tighter on volume but much wider on margin than expected. Call it 2 from 3 for the model, with GWS comfortably covering the 5.5-point line.

Collingwood will look at the clearance and hit-out numbers and wonder how a game they won in those columns got away by 52. GWS will just look at the scoreboard.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 33 | 22 | 8 | 41 | 104 |
| Collingwood | 12 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 52 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| **364** | Disposals | 352 |
| 118 | Contested poss. | **139** |
| 36 | Clearances | **40** |
| 54 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| **93** | Marks | 87 |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **9** |
| **59** | Tackles | 39 |
| 23 | Hit-outs | **47** |
| **64** | Intercepts | 56 |
| **74.9%** | Disposal eff. | 66.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 23.2 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 156 points came in 33 points lower than the predicted 189. GWS GIANTS led 55–32 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 52. The model went 2/3 on this match. GWS GIANTS covered the 5.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $2.18 (edge +36.3%) — model probability 82.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +36.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 23 · Predicted total: 189

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | no games | 13/10g (0·1·1·0·1·3·1·2·3·1) | 2/2g | 10/11g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brent Daniels | FWD | no games | 9/10g (0·0·0·2·2·1·1·3·0·0) | 6/7g | 28/33g | 60% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Callan Ward | MID | no games | 9/10g (2·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 3/13g | 40/82g | 38% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | no games | 10/10g (3·0·0·3·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 6/4g | 19/10g | 48% | — | 🏉 30' 67' |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/27g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Conor Stone | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | no games | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·1·2·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 71% | — | 🏉 92' 79' |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/15g | 12% | — | 🏉 33' 93' |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 58/54g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/21g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/7g | 9% | — | — |
| – | James Leake | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | no games | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 11/12g | 51/70g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/17g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 3/27g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 30/82g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Keeffe | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 8/24g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | no games | 3/4g (2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' 97' |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/34g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 34/73g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 8/15g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | no games | 22/10g (2·4·2·3·3·1·2·2·0·3) | 15/12g | 132/78g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | no games | 5/10g (4·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 4/17g | 30% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 6/5g | 1/1g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | no games | 15/10g (5·1·0·0·2·2·1·2·0·2) | 5/3g | 10/12g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 3/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | no games | 16/10g (0·0·3·2·3·3·0·2·2·1) | 12/9g | 9/4g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' 55' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | no games | 17/10g (2·2·1·2·2·1·3·1·1·2) | 12/10g | 2/4g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | no games | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 4/3g | 2/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | no games | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 13/41g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | no games | 8/10g (1·0·3·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 6/13g | 2/6g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | no games | 11/10g (1·2·1·2·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 14/10g | 5/5g | 78% | — | 🏉 46' 87' |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | no games | 4/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/18g | 1/6g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | no games | 14/10g (3·1·4·1·0·2·1·0·2·0) | 5/6g | 0/2g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | no games | 10/10g (2·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·2) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 2/5g | 2/3g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Reef McInnes | DEF | no games | 13/10g (0·3·1·1·1·3·2·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 2/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/15g | 6/6g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | no games | 16/10g (1·0·1·0·5·2·1·3·1·2) | 12/10g | 5/3g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | no games | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·2·0·1·1) | 9/11g | 13/22g | 54% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield | 29.5 | $2.00 | 55% | 26 ✓ |
| Josh Kelly | 24.5 | $2.00 | 57% | 36 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan | 24.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 33 ✗ |
| Stephen Coniglio ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $2.00 | 69% | 11 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 25 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.89 | 67% | 21 ✗ |
| Callan Ward | 18.5 | $1.89 | 41% | 23 ✗ |
| Toby Greene | 15.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 18 ✗ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 28.5 | $1.81 | 45% | 21 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.83 | 70% | 28 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 21.5 | $1.88 | 52% | 19 ✓ |
| Harry Perryman ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 27 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 20.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 15 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 20.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 20 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 82% | 17 ✓ |
| Jeremy Howe | 16.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r0-gws-giants-v-collingwood
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)