AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 23.2 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 156 points came in 33 points lower than the predicted 189. GWS GIANTS led 55–32 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 52. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
82%
Collingwood
18%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Collingwood. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Recent Win Rate, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 23.2 points with a combined total of 189.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @2.18
Winner ✓
Edge
+36.3%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS +5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+36.3%
Total Points
Over 175.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W W W L L | 79.6 |
Collingwood | W W W L L | 105.0 |
Avg Conceded
89.9
GWS GIANTS
80.3
Collingwood
Avg Margin
28.6
GWS GIANTS
21.3
Collingwood
Disposals
331.6
GWS GIANTS
368.3
Collingwood
Inside 50s
53.1
GWS GIANTS
45.3
Collingwood
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
82%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 23 points
Predicted total: 189 · Line: +23.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.11
Team Effectiveness
+0.21
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.