# GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn — AFL Wildcard Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 88 – 107 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn see off GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 41 – 69 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 46% / Hawthorn 54% · ENGIE Stadium · Sat, 06 Sept, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Finn Callaghan (24'), Jake Riccardi (29'), Toby Bedford (36' ×2), Jesse Hogan (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Jones (54'), Harvey Thomas (93'), Josh Kelly (95' ×2), Xavier OHalloran (108'), Final quarter (32m 18s)Jesse Hogan (75') · Hawthorn: Jai Newcombe (14' 1st), Connor Macdonald (15' ×3), Nick Watson (17' Tipped ⚡), Karl Amon (19'), Calsher Dear (27' Tipped ⚡), Jack Gunston (31' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jack Ginnivan (48' ×3), Sam Butler (90'), Mabior Chol (92' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 54% | Won |
| GWS GIANTS | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.2 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Wildcard Finals, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

GWS GIANTS 88–107 Hawthorn in AFL Wildcard Finals at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hawthorn accounted for GWS GIANTS 107–88 at ENGIE Stadium. Hawthorn led 85–79 at three-quarter time and held on.

GWS GIANTS controlled the midfield, winning 55 clearances to 49. Hawthorn used the ball more cleanly, hitting targets at 72.6%. GWS GIANTS pressed forward more often, going inside 50 72 times to 56. Hawthorn read the play better in defence, pulling down 76 intercepts to 62.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 20 | 21 | 38 | 9 | 88 |
| Hawthorn | 44 | 25 | 16 | 22 | 107 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 359 | Disposals | **371** |
| **150** | Contested poss. | 146 |
| **55** | Clearances | 49 |
| **72** | Inside 50s | 56 |
| 60 | Marks | **61** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **8** |
| **76** | Tackles | 71 |
| **50** | Hit-outs | 46 |
| 62 | Intercepts | **76** |
| 66.4% | Disposal eff. | **72.6%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.2 but the actual margin was 19 points. The game's 195 points came in 43 points higher than the predicted 152. The model went 2/3 on this match. Hawthorn covered the 2.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $2.05 (edge +5.3%) — model probability 54.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 6 · Predicted total: 152

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 249 · 167 | 222 · 162 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 99/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.7/g | 17.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10/g | 10.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.8% | 67.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 56 · 66 | 46 · 59 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 137/g | 136/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.5/g | 21.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72% | 69.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 26 | 32 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.5/g | 13.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.9% | 79.7% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.32/g (lg 1.24) +6% · Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.36) +0% · Key Forwards 3.46/g (lg 3.63) -5%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0% · Defenders 1.23/g (lg 1.24) -1% · Forwards 4.27/g (lg 4.47) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 44 in 23g | 28/10g (5·3·2·6·1·3·2·4·2·0) | 5/4g | 26/19g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 43 in 15g | 25/10g (7·1·4·0·2·6·2·1·2·0) | 23/9g | 86/27g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 100' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 41 in 21g | 20/10g (1·0·2·3·2·2·1·3·2·4) | 17/14g | 147/86g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 79% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 25 in 21g | 15/10g (3·2·1·1·2·0·0·5·0·1) | 4/3g | 30/18g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 25 in 14g | 22/10g (0·3·2·2·1·4·3·3·1·3) | 20/11g | 14/11g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 82% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 22 in 19g | 9/10g (0·2·1·1·2·0·2·0·1·0) | 4/2g | 31/27g | 70% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 18 in 22g | 8/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 12/13g | 63% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 15 in 22g | 10/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·1·1·2·1) | 4/5g | 14/23g | 50% | — | 🏉 36' 101' |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 13 in 22g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/7g | 22/37g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 8 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/12g | 41% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 8 in 22g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 6/25g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/22g | 16% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 34/76g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 3 in 23g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 7/10g | 60/62g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/10g | 51/76g | 38% | — | 🏉 95' 105' |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 3 in 19g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/24g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/35g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/40g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/35g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 30/90g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 62 in 20g | 36/10g (2·7·3·1·3·3·4·4·7·2) | 30/13g | 14/6g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' 59' 67' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 39 in 21g | 19/10g (0·4·1·5·2·0·1·3·0·3) | 8/6g | 5/3g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 92' 104' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 32 in 22g | 14/10g (0·3·2·1·1·2·1·2·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 25 in 22g | 10/10g (0·2·1·1·1·1·2·0·0·2) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 72% | — | 🏉 48' 89' 91' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 21 in 23g | 10/10g (0·1·1·1·2·0·1·1·2·1) | 9/8g | 2/2g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 17 in 21g | 8/10g (2·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/5g | 2/2g | 62% | — | 🏉 15' 32' 52' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/6g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 10 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | 9 in 8g | 13/10g (3·1·0·3·2·2·0·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 9 in 23g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/2g | 38% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 1/6g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 5 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 4 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 2/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Butler | FWD | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 41% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.77 | 69% | 34 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.80 | 76% | 28 ✗ |
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.95 | 69% | 36 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan | 26.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 34 ✗ |
| Stephen Coniglio ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 14 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 65% | 9 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 16.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 9 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 16.5 | $1.84 | 63% | 12 ✓ |
| Xavier O'Halloran | 14.5 | $1.87 | 42% | 17 ✗ |
| Darcy Jones | 13.5 | $1.83 | 52% | 5 ✓ |
| Sam Taylor | 12.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 8 ✓ |
| Kieren Briggs ⚡ Under | 12.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 16 ✗ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 23 ✗ |
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 32 ✗ |
| Jarman Impey | 21.5 | $1.70 | 62% | 28 ✗ |
| James Sicily ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 70% | 17 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore | 20.5 | $1.83 | 60% | 19 ✓ |
| James Worpel | 20.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 20 ✓ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $2.00 | 69% | 17 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 18.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 19 ✗ |
| Conor Nash ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 24 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 17.5 | $1.94 | 52% | 16 ✓ |
| Josh Battle | 16.5 | $1.78 | 54% | 19 ✗ |
| Blake Hardwick | 14.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 20 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)