AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.2 but the actual margin was 19 points. The game's 195 points came in 43 points higher than the predicted 152. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
46%
Hawthorn
54%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though GWS GIANTS are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Hawthorn carry a 28-point ELO rating advantage (1547 vs 1520). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for GWS GIANTS. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 6.2 points with a combined total of 152.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @2.05
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.3%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.3%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W L L L L | 91.8 |
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 73.6 |
Avg Conceded
85.4
GWS GIANTS
71.3
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
18.1
GWS GIANTS
14.3
Hawthorn
Disposals
336.3
GWS GIANTS
330.3
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.3
GWS GIANTS
49.8
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1547 vs 1520), but the market favours GWS GIANTS (@1.95).
The model sides with ELO, Hawthorn predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 152 · Line: -6.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.28
Team Effectiveness
-0.19
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.