AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 0.5 but the actual margin was 38 points. Geelong Cats led 59–44 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 169.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
53%
Brisbane Lions
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Geelong Cats a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Venue Advantage. Geelong Cats carry a 32-point ELO rating advantage (1506 vs 1473). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Brisbane Lions.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.75
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.4%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.4%
Total Points
Over 169.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | W W W L L | 95.7 |
Brisbane Lions | W W L L L | 73.1 |
Avg Conceded
76.3
Geelong Cats
67.5
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
-7.0
Geelong Cats
10.4
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
366.8
Geelong Cats
349.4
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.8
Geelong Cats
50.0
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 173 · Line: -0.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.29
Team Effectiveness
+0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.