AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.5 but the actual margin was 38 points. Geelong Cats led 59–44 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 169.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
53%
Brisbane Lions
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Geelong Cats a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Venue Advantage. Geelong Cats carry a 32-point ELO rating advantage (1506 vs 1473). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Brisbane Lions.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.75
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.4%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.4%
Total Points
Over 169.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | W W W L L | 95.7 |
Brisbane Lions | W W L L L | 73.1 |
Avg Conceded
76.3
Geelong Cats
67.5
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
-7.0
Geelong Cats
10.4
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
366.8
Geelong Cats
349.4
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.8
Geelong Cats
50.0
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 173 · Line: -0.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.29
Team Effectiveness
+0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.