# Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions — AFL Wildcard Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 112 – 74 Brisbane Lions

_Geelong Cats pounce on Brisbane Lions._

Half time: 59 – 44 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 53% / Brisbane Lions 47% · MCG · Fri, 05 Sept, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Jeremy Cameron (5' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Oliver Dempsey (7' ×3), Oisin Mullin (25'), Sam De Koning (53'), Jack Bowes (55'), Tom Stewart (58'), Mark Blicavs (69'), Bailey Smith (79'), Max Holmes (83'), Jack Martin (93'), Final quarter (31m 18s)Shannon Neale (69'), Tom Atkins (89'), Brad Close (94') · Brisbane Lions: Jaspa Fletcher (15'), Kai Lohmann (20'), Jarrod Berry (38'), Cam Rayner (60' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Logan Morris (89' Tipped ⚡), Zac Bailey (79' Tipped ⚡), Josh Dunkley (83')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 53% | Won |
| Brisbane Lions | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.5 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Wildcard Finals 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 112–74 Brisbane Lions in AFL Wildcard Finals at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong Cats ran away from Brisbane Lions 112–74 at MCG. Geelong Cats led 90–59 at three-quarter time and held on.

Brisbane Lions's ruck division got on top, winning 60 hit-outs to 39. Geelong Cats won the contested-possession battle 136 to 120. Brisbane Lions racked up the footy, finishing with 376 disposals to 336. Geelong Cats pressed forward more often, going inside 50 60 times to 47. Geelong Cats were cleaner inside forward 50 with 21 marks to 6. Geelong Cats brought the pressure, laying 80 tackles to 64. Geelong Cats read the play better in defence, pulling down 67 intercepts to 59.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 30 | 29 | 31 | 22 | 112 |
| Brisbane Lions | 18 | 26 | 15 | 15 | 74 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 336 | Disposals | **376** |
| **136** | Contested poss. | 120 |
| **38** | Clearances | 37 |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| **100** | Marks | 90 |
| **21** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| **80** | Tackles | 64 |
| 39 | Hit-outs | **60** |
| **67** | Intercepts | 59 |
| 71.9% | Disposal eff. | **73.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.5 but the actual margin was 38 points. Geelong Cats led 59–44 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 169.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.75 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 52.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 1 · Predicted total: 173

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Geelong Cats | 101 – 123 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2026 | R10 | Brisbane Lions | 76 – 117 | Geelong Cats |
| 2025 | PF | Geelong Cats | 75 – 122 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | R15 | Geelong Cats | 51 – 92 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | R3 | Brisbane Lions | 70 – 61 | Geelong Cats |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 268 · 169 | 204 · 180 |
| Goal Assists | 6.7/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 87/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.8/g | 18.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.9/g | 9.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.1% | 66.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 78 · 55 | 69 · 60 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 163/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.3/g | 25.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.7/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.2% | 69.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 25 | 24 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 106/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.7/g | 12.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.3% | 80.2% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.43/g (lg 4.43) +0% · Key Forwards 3.33/g (lg 3.63) -8% · Midfielders 2.12/g (lg 2.39) -11%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.82/g (lg 3.63) +5% · Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.51) +2% · Forwards 4.2/g (lg 4.43) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 83 in 23g | 45/10g (6·4·4·1·5·11·6·4·0·4) | 39/19g | 122/43g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 98% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 11' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 41 in 22g | 27/10g (0·4·1·3·5·0·4·3·3·4) | 1/3g | 8/8g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 31 in 21g | 18/10g (2·4·1·0·2·2·2·0·3·2) | 7/7g | 40/25g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 28 in 23g | 8/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 2/4g | 15/13g | 74% | — | 🏉 7' 56' 95' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 28 in 20g | 16/10g (3·0·1·1·3·0·0·3·3·2) | 1/2g | 12/7g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 27 in 20g | 10/10g (0·2·0·2·0·2·0·1·1·2) | 21/20g | 55/64g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 17 in 23g | 7/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 23/30g | 64% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 14 in 18g | 9/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 2/13g | 5/18g | 54% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 13 in 21g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·2·0) | 10/11g | 23/35g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 11 in 23g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 17/29g | 42% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·4·2·1) | 12/13g | 33/31g | 62% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 8/21g | 21/77g | 24% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 6 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 7/14g | 24% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 3/41g | 8% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/23g | 8% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/37g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/35g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 8/38g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 0% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/50g | 2% | — | 🏉 58' |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 48 in 22g | 28/10g (5·5·1·2·1·0·6·3·4·1) | 8/3g | 14/6g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 89' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 33 in 22g | 15/10g (1·1·0·5·1·1·2·2·2·0) | 4/10g | 17/16g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 29 in 23g | 16/10g (1·3·0·2·1·3·2·0·2·2) | 11/11g | 13/18g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' 61' 71' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 26 in 21g | 12/10g (0·0·3·3·1·0·0·0·3·2) | 28/18g | 40/28g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 68% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 23 in 22g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 9/13g | 14/14g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 13 in 23g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 6/14g | 14/20g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 12 in 14g | 12/10g (0·0·3·1·0·2·1·1·2·2) | 3/5g | 8/5g | 68% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 11 in 23g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/3g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 23g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 6/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 5/19g | 24% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/20g | 11/31g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 6 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/17g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 6 in 23g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/12g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 6 in 23g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 3/9g | 20% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 5 in 23g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/13g | 7/19g | 24% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/6g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/20g | 15/24g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Day | KF | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/11g | 6/11g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/17g | 2/17g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Marshall | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 1/22g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 29.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 22 ✓ |
| Max Holmes | 25.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 23 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 19 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart | 20.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 22 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 19.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 17 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 17.5 | $1.80 | 58% | 15 ✓ |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 15.5 | $1.81 | 54% | 19 ✗ |
| Zach Guthrie | 15.5 | $1.98 | 51% | 14 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 14.5 | $1.87 | 34% | 25 ✗ |
| Mark Blicavs | 13.5 | $2.03 | 45% | 20 ✗ |
| Jeremy Cameron | 13.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 13 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries | 13.5 | $1.92 | 41% | 13 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | 26.5 | $1.92 | 54% | 30 ✗ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 25.5 | $1.88 | 51% | 14 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 24.5 | $2.00 | 46% | 30 ✗ |
| Lachie Neale | 24.5 | $1.92 | 35% | 32 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko | 24.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 35 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 21.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 20 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey | 20.5 | $1.85 | 58% | 27 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 20.5 | $1.78 | 52% | 24 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry | 18.5 | $1.94 | 38% | 18 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.80 | 50% | 13 ✓ |
| Cam Rayner | 16.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 13 ✓ |
| Harris Andrews | 13.5 | $1.80 | 50% | 16 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)