AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 54% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Fremantle by 2.8 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The game's 159 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 176. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 158.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
46%
Gold Coast SUNS
54%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Fremantle are far from out of this at 46%. Fremantle are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Midfield ELO, Defensive ELO and Venue Advantage, but Gold Coast SUNS counter with ELO Difference and Forward Line ELO which tips the scales. Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 2.8 points with a combined total of 176.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @2.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.8%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+10.8%
Total Points
Over 158.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | W L L L L | 89.8 |
Gold Coast SUNS | W W W L L | 97.4 |
Avg Conceded
76.5
Fremantle
98.3
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
-3.2
Fremantle
16.9
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
354.6
Fremantle
372.4
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
50.2
Fremantle
54.2
Gold Coast SUNS
ELO–Market Disagreement
Gold Coast SUNS hold the ELO advantage (1505 vs 1503), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.77).
The model sides with ELO, Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 176 · Line: +2.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.16
Team Effectiveness
-0.13
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.