AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 54% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Fremantle by 2.8 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The game's 159 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 176. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 158.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
46%
Gold Coast SUNS
54%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Fremantle are far from out of this at 46%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Fremantle carry a 26-point ELO rating advantage (1658 vs 1632). Recent form favours Fremantle with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 2.8 points with a combined total of 176.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @2.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.8%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+10.8%
Total Points
Over 158.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | WWWWL | 93.6 |
Gold Coast SUNS | WWWLL | 99.2 |
Avg Conceded
85.6
Fremantle
67.4
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
8.0
Fremantle
31.8
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
322.6
Fremantle
354.4
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
50.0
Fremantle
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 176 · Line: +2.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.16
Team Effectiveness
-0.13
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.