# Fremantle v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Wildcard Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 79 – 80 Gold Coast SUNS

_Gold Coast SUNS edge Fremantle in a one-point thriller._

Half time: 32 – 57 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 46% / Gold Coast SUNS 54% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 06 Sept, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Patrick Voss (6' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Jye Amiss (35' Tipped ⚡), Neil Erasmus (37'), Murphy Reid (50'), Isaiah Dudley (91' ×2), Shai Bolton (71'), Josh Treacy (87' Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (93') · Gold Coast SUNS: Ben Long (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Bailey Humphrey (38' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Connor Budarick (41' ×2), Alex Davies (56'), Brayden Fiorini (59'), Jy Farrar (69'), Mac Andrew (96')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 54% | Won |
| Fremantle | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.8 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Wildcard Finals 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Fremantle 79–80 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Wildcard Finals at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Gold Coast SUNS edged Fremantle 80–79 at Optus Stadium. Gold Coast SUNS led 67–52 at three-quarter time and held on.

Fremantle controlled the midfield, winning 49 clearances to 41. Fremantle pressed forward more often, going inside 50 59 times to 49. Fremantle were cleaner inside forward 50 with 11 marks to 6. Gold Coast SUNS read the play better in defence, pulling down 64 intercepts to 55. In a tight contest, those edges proved decisive.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 8 | 24 | 20 | 27 | 79 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 12 | 45 | 10 | 13 | 80 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 346 | Disposals | **350** |
| **151** | Contested poss. | 141 |
| **49** | Clearances | 41 |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 49 |
| **71** | Marks | 60 |
| **11** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| **76** | Tackles | 65 |
| 41 | Hit-outs | **49** |
| 55 | Intercepts | **64** |
| 71.1% | Disposal eff. | **73.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 54% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Fremantle by 2.8 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The game's 159 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 176. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 158.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $2.30 (edge +10.8%) — model probability 54.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 158.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 3 · Predicted total: 176

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 189 · 182 | 242 · 172 |
| Goal Assists | 4.1/g | 4.9/g |
| Disposals | 75/g | 100/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.3/g | 20/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.3/g | 10.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.7% | 67.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 83 · 62 | 51 · 63 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 156/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 28/g | 22.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 71.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 16 · 21 | 24 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.9/g | 14.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.9% | 79.2% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.36/g (lg 1.24) +10% · Midfielders 2.39/g (lg 2.39) +0% · Forwards 4.43/g (lg 4.44) +0%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.42/g (lg 2.39) +1% · Forwards 4.25/g (lg 4.44) -4% · Key Forwards 3.43/g (lg 3.63) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 42 in 23g | 19/10g (3·3·2·1·0·0·3·2·2·3) | 4/4g | 63/42g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 87' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 34 in 19g | 21/10g (1·0·1·1·6·3·3·3·0·3) | 3/1g | 19/16g | 81% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 43' 80' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 31 in 23g | 14/10g (0·0·1·2·2·3·3·0·0·3) | 4/3g | 57/38g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 30 in 23g | 13/10g (2·0·1·2·0·4·0·2·0·2) | 3/4g | 65/56g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 27 in 22g | 10/10g (2·1·0·2·0·1·0·2·0·2) | 14/9g | 33/22g | 68% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 24 in 23g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 13/13g | 76% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 19 in 20g | 13/10g (3·2·2·0·1·1·1·0·1·2) | 8/5g | 36/41g | 64% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 13 in 15g | 9/10g (1·1·0·2·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 10/9g | 68% | — | 🏉 91' 94' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 7 in 23g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 32/88g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 7 in 23g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 23/66g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·3·0·0) | 3/4g | 14/43g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 23/64g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/61g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 28/61g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 10/21g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 12/35g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 8/52g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 21/67g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/23g | 8% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/37g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/89g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nat Fyfe | MID | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 26/53g | 22% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 69 in 23g | 34/10g (3·4·2·1·2·4·6·2·3·7) | 5/4g | 16/5g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 94% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 43 in 22g | 18/10g (2·0·1·0·4·2·3·2·3·1) | 2/7g | 9/5g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 71' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 22 in 21g | 15/10g (1·2·2·2·1·0·3·3·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.57 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' 62' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 22 in 22g | 13/10g (2·1·0·1·3·1·1·2·0·2) | 2/6g | 2/6g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.73 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 19 in 19g | 13/10g (1·3·1·1·1·2·0·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.53 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 16 in 21g | 4/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 5/8g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 11 in 23g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·3) | 3/6g | 1/7g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 11 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jy Farrar | FWD | 9 in 6g | 10/10g (0·1·0·0·3·2·0·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 9 in 23g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 2/6g | 1/7g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 8 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/9g | 3/9g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 7 in 16g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 2/6g | 34% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 5 in 23g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 41' 66' |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 4 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 2/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/10g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/7g | 14% | — | — |
| – | David Swallow | FWD | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/11g | 6/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 96' |
| – | Alex Davies | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 2/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.91 | 74% | 35 ✗ |
| Andrew Brayshaw ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.93 | 64% | 32 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark | 24.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 20 ✓ |
| Hayden Young ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 28 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 19.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 23 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 17.5 | $1.85 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 16.5 | $1.81 | 54% | 18 ✗ |
| Neil Erasmus ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 18 ✗ |
| Bailey Banfield ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 11 ✓ |
| Murphy Reid | 13.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 20 ✗ |
| Josh Treacy ⚡ Under | 11.5 | $1.92 | 64% | 15 ✗ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 28.5 | $2.00 | 53% | 32 ✗ |
| Matt Rowell | 26.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 34 ✗ |
| John Noble | 24.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 20 ✓ |
| Touk Miller | 24.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 18 ✓ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 20.5 | $1.87 | 41% | 14 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli | 18.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 13 ✓ |
| Sam Flanders | 17.5 | $1.94 | 31% | 14 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 16.5 | $1.82 | 36% | 19 ✗ |
| Wil Powell | 16.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 18 ✗ |
| Lachie Weller | 15.5 | $1.85 | 41% | 17 ✗ |
| Bodhi Uwland | 15.5 | $1.94 | 54% | 13 ✓ |
| Bailey Humphrey | 13.5 | $1.94 | 45% | 10 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)