AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.9 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 134 points came in 27 points lower than the predicted 161. Collingwood led 31–37 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
41%
Collingwood
59%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Adelaide Crows are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Collingwood carry a 67-point ELO rating advantage (1547 vs 1480). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 2.9 points with a combined total of 161.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @2.10
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.2%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.2%
Total Points
Over 160.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | W W W W L | 95.2 |
Collingwood | W W L L L | 107.0 |
Avg Conceded
99.0
Adelaide Crows
71.6
Collingwood
Avg Margin
21.8
Adelaide Crows
25.0
Collingwood
Disposals
370.2
Adelaide Crows
361.4
Collingwood
Inside 50s
58.0
Adelaide Crows
50.6
Collingwood
ELO–Market Disagreement
Collingwood hold the ELO advantage (1547 vs 1480), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.91).
The model sides with ELO, Collingwood predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Collingwood predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 161 · Line: -2.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.04
Team Effectiveness
-0.35
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.