# Adelaide Crows v Collingwood — AFL Wildcard Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 55 – 79 Collingwood

_Collingwood see off Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 31 – 37 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 41% / Collingwood 59% · Adelaide Oval · Thu, 04 Sept, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Taylor Walker (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jordan Dawson (16'), Luke Pedlar (46' ×3), Riley Thilthorpe (48' ×2 Tipped ⚡) · Collingwood: Nick Daicos (11' 1st), Steele Sidebottom (52' ×2), Darcy Cameron (60'), Jordan de Goey (68' Tipped ⚡), Jamie Elliott (79' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Lipinski (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 59% | Won |
| Adelaide Crows | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.9 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Prediction and Tips - AFL Wildcard Finals, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 55–79 Collingwood in AFL Wildcard Finals at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood accounted for Adelaide Crows 79–55 at Adelaide Oval. Collingwood led 71–52 at three-quarter time and held on.

Collingwood racked up the footy, finishing with 369 disposals to 303. Collingwood used the ball more cleanly, hitting targets at 71.6%. Collingwood were cleaner inside forward 50 with 16 marks to 13. Collingwood read the play better in defence, pulling down 78 intercepts to 64.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 13 | 18 | 21 | 3 | 55 |
| Collingwood | 15 | 22 | 34 | 8 | 79 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 303 | Disposals | **369** |
| 135 | Contested poss. | **139** |
| **35** | Clearances | 33 |
| **50** | Inside 50s | 49 |
| 77 | Marks | **96** |
| 13 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| 56 | Tackles | **65** |
| **41** | Hit-outs | 32 |
| 64 | Intercepts | **78** |
| 64.7% | Disposal eff. | **71.6%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.9 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 134 points came in 27 points lower than the predicted 161. Collingwood led 31–37 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 2/3 on this match. Collingwood covered the 6.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $2.10 (edge +11.2%) — model probability 58.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 3 · Predicted total: 161

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 235 · 156 | 218 · 150 |
| Goal Assists | 5.1/g | 5/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.6/g | 20.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.7/g | 10.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.4% | 67.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 93 · 57 | 49 · 68 |
| Goal Assists | 4.9/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.3/g | 19.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 68.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 21 | 19 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 118/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 10/g | 12.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.4% | 80.2% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.49/g (lg 0.51) -4% · Defenders 1.14/g (lg 1.24) -8% · Key Forwards 3.29/g (lg 3.64) -10%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.33/g (lg 1.24) +7% · Midfielders 2.32/g (lg 2.35) -1% · Forwards 4.19/g (lg 4.47) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 55 in 23g | 27/10g (0·5·0·6·2·3·4·3·1·3) | 4/6g | 59/44g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' 96' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 40 in 22g | 12/10g (0·1·2·3·0·1·1·1·2·1) | 16/11g | 115/71g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 37 in 21g | 18/10g (1·0·2·2·2·2·3·3·2·1) | 26/15g | 287/128g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 43' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 35 in 23g | 12/10g (2·0·2·0·1·3·0·1·0·3) | 0/11g | 64/74g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 17 in 23g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0·0·1) | 7/13g | 16/25g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 17 in 23g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 29/54g | 44% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 13 in 23g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 20/47g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 11 in 23g | 7/10g (1·2·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 8/18g | 43% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 11 in 21g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·3) | 1/3g | 6/13g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 9 in 7g | 10/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·0·1·1·3) | 4/3g | 20/19g | 64% | — | 🏉 46' 81' 88' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 7 in 22g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 6/20g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/41g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/37g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/15g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Smith | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/16g | 31/117g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 3 in 23g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 9/79g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 18/67g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/47g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/14g | 18/136g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Bond | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/30g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/29g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/37g | 0% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 52 in 23g | 18/10g (2·1·4·3·2·1·1·0·2·2) | 20/14g | 24/12g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' 89' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 36 in 20g | 14/10g (1·1·2·2·2·2·1·2·0·1) | 8/9g | 15/10g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 30 in 21g | 15/10g (1·2·2·2·2·2·1·1·2·0) | 13/10g | 20/15g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 16 in 23g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·1·3·1·0·1·0) | 5/7g | 6/7g | 64% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 12 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·2) | 8/6g | 10/6g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 12 in 21g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·1) | 7/16g | 4/15g | 30% | — | 🏉 52' 70' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 9 in 23g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 8/16g | 6/14g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 8 in 9g | 10/10g (2·0·2·2·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 5/8g | 4/9g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.53 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 8 in 21g | 7/10g (2·2·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 3/10g | 42% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 7 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 6 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 5/7g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/16g | 30/92g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 6 in 23g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/8g | 4/7g | 26% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 5 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/12g | 1/14g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 4 in 23g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/11g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 3 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 4/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/15g | 4/12g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/5g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/16g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Parker | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | 24.5 | $2.00 | 56% | 19 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $2.00 | 44% | 24 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo | 20.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 21 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.75 | 68% | 9 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 19.5 | $1.95 | 50% | 26 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera | 17.5 | $1.99 | 45% | 11 ✓ |
| Sam Berry | 16.5 | $1.88 | 50% | 12 ✓ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 16.5 | $1.80 | 59% | 17 ✗ |
| Ben Keays | 16.5 | $1.92 | 45% | 15 ✓ |
| Mark Keane | 16.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 16 ✓ |
| Isaac Cumming | 15.5 | $1.94 | 42% | 7 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 15.5 | $1.99 | 54% | 7 ✓ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 28.5 | $2.00 | 45% | 24 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos | 23.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 24 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 22.5 | $1.91 | 50% | 23 ✗ |
| Jordan De Goey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 90% | 26 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 20.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 15 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 19.5 | $1.95 | 51% | 22 ✗ |
| Dan Houston ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.77 | 68% | 16 ✓ |
| Brayden Maynard | 16.5 | $1.94 | 55% | 20 ✗ |
| Darcy Cameron | 16.5 | $1.93 | 53% | 15 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $2.00 | 67% | 23 ✗ |
| Harry Perryman | 15.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 14 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 15.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)