# Geelong Cats v Hawthorn — AFL Semi Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 115 – 85 Hawthorn

_Geelong Cats toy with Hawthorn._

Half time: 43 – 42 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 88% / Hawthorn 12% · MCG · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Patrick Dangerfield (29' ×3), Shannon Neale (36' Tipped ⚡), Mark Blicavs (38'), Shaun Mannagh (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jeremy Cameron (53' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Tyson Stengle (58' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Max Holmes (70'), Jack Martin (87'), Gryan Miers (71'), Bailey Smith (90') · Hawthorn: Jack Ginnivan (11' 1st), Conor Nash (20'), Mitch Lewis (41' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (50' Tipped ⚡), Jack Gunston (77' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Connor Macdonald (79'), Jarman Impey (83'), Dylan Moore (76'), Mabior Chol (82' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 88% | Won |
| Hawthorn | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 27.7 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Semi Finals 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 115–85 Hawthorn in AFL Semi Finals at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong Cats accounted for Hawthorn 115–85 at MCG. Geelong Cats led 89–61 at three-quarter time and held on.

Hawthorn's ruck division got on top, winning 52 hit-outs to 39. Geelong Cats controlled the midfield, winning 50 clearances to 33. Geelong Cats used the ball more cleanly, hitting targets at 71.8%. Geelong Cats pressed forward more often, going inside 50 66 times to 40.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 9 | 34 | 46 | 26 | 115 |
| Hawthorn | 22 | 20 | 19 | 24 | 85 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| **347** | Disposals | 333 |
| **147** | Contested poss. | 137 |
| **50** | Clearances | 33 |
| **66** | Inside 50s | 40 |
| 67 | Marks | **77** |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **11** |
| 77 | Tackles | **79** |
| 39 | Hit-outs | **52** |
| **66** | Intercepts | 65 |
| **71.8%** | Disposal eff. | 65.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 88% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Geelong Cats by 27.7 vs the actual margin of 30 points. The game's 200 points came in 27 points higher than the predicted 173. Geelong Cats led 43–42 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.56 (edge +23.5%) — model probability 87.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 28 · Predicted total: 173

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 273 · 177 | 247 · 178 |
| Goal Assists | 6.7/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 99/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.8/g | 17.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 12/g | 10.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.9% | 67.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 87 · 57 | 48 · 66 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.8/g | 22/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.1% | 69.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 26 | 35 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposals | 106/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.6/g | 14.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.4% | 79.3% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.29/g (lg 1.24) +4% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.39) +0% · Key Forwards 3.48/g (lg 3.63) -4%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.78/g (lg 3.63) +4% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0% · Forwards 4.24/g (lg 4.44) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 85 in 24g | 41/10g (4·4·1·5·11·6·4·0·4·2) | 37/14g | 124/44g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' 73' 94' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 42 in 23g | 28/10g (4·1·3·5·0·4·3·3·4·1) | 2/2g | 9/9g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 31 in 24g | 9/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·3) | 2/3g | 18/14g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 31 in 22g | 16/10g (4·1·0·2·2·2·0·3·2·0) | 8/6g | 40/26g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' 84' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 28 in 21g | 13/10g (0·1·1·3·0·0·3·3·2·0) | 3/2g | 12/8g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.41 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 96' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 27 in 21g | 10/10g (2·0·2·0·2·0·1·1·2·0) | 19/19g | 55/65g | 60% | — | 🏉 29' 67' 69' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 18 in 24g | 7/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 7/5g | 24/31g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 15 in 19g | 10/10g (1·2·1·1·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 0/7g | 6/19g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 13 in 22g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 7/9g | 23/36g | 54% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 12 in 24g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 18/30g | 44% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 11 in 11g | 11/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·4·2·1·1) | 10/9g | 34/32g | 66% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 9 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 7/23g | 22/78g | 26% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 7 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 8/15g | 26% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 5 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 4/42g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 4 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 3/24g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/38g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/12g | 3/51g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/36g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 8/39g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 70 in 22g | 35/10g (3·1·3·3·4·4·7·2·3·5) | 40/23g | 231/118g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' 65' 78' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 41 in 23g | 17/10g (1·5·2·0·1·3·0·3·2·0) | 8/5g | 37/31g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 35 in 24g | 14/10g (2·1·1·2·1·2·1·1·1·2) | 3/3g | 31/18g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 28 in 24g | 11/10g (1·1·1·1·2·0·0·2·3·0) | 2/4g | 61/47g | 72% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 22 in 25g | 10/10g (1·1·2·0·1·1·2·1·0·1) | 7/6g | 50/51g | 72% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 21 in 23g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·3·1) | 2/5g | 27/37g | 64% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 12/76g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 11 in 25g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/5g | 12/40g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 10 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 9/24g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 9 in 17g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 11/24g | 44% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 31/78g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 5 in 25g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/25g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 5 in 7g | 9/10g (1·1·2·0·2·1·1·0·1·0) | 12/6g | 55/30g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 41' 44' |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 7/48g | 12% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 22/58g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 4 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 14/65g | 10% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 4 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/14g | 10/34g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 3 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/28g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Butler | FWD | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/26g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/46g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/23g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 27.5 | $1.85 | 49% | 36 ✗ |
| Max Holmes | 24.5 | $1.89 | 53% | 25 ✗ |
| Tom Stewart | 21.5 | $1.85 | 62% | 7 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers | 19.5 | $1.92 | 54% | 27 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 18.5 | $2.00 | 52% | 25 ✗ |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 17.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 31 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 16.5 | $1.92 | 50% | 15 ✓ |
| Mark Blicavs ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 12 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 15.5 | $1.85 | 38% | 14 ✓ |
| Jack Bowes | 15.5 | $1.92 | 58% | 12 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 15.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 21 ✗ |
| Lawson Humphries | 13.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 8 ✓ |
| Jeremy Cameron | 13.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 16 ✗ |
| Mark O'Connor | 12.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 7 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.92 | 51% | 28 ✗ |
| Jai Newcombe | 21.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 20 ✓ |
| James Worpel | 21.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 16 ✓ |
| James Sicily | 20.5 | $1.89 | 56% | 16 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey | 20.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 14 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 20.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 8 ✓ |
| Conor Nash | 18.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 23 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 17.5 | $1.91 | 36% | 26 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan | 16.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 24 ✗ |
| Josh Battle | 16.5 | $1.80 | 43% | 18 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 16.5 | $1.87 | 35% | 12 ✓ |
| Blake Hardwick | 15.5 | $1.87 | 40% | 10 ✓ |
| Josh Weddle | 15.5 | $1.90 | 40% | 12 ✓ |
| Connor Macdonald | 14.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)