AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 88% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Geelong Cats by 27.7 vs the actual margin of 30 points. The game's 200 points came in 27 points higher than the predicted 173. Geelong Cats led 43–42 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
88%
Hawthorn
12%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 88%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hawthorn. Hawthorn are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Geelong Cats counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 57-point ELO rating advantage (1571 vs 1514). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 27.7 points with a combined total of 173.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.56
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.5%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.5%
Total Points
Over 166.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | W W W W L | 86.9 |
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 87.5 |
Avg Conceded
76.3
Geelong Cats
83.6
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
-8.7
Geelong Cats
-9.5
Hawthorn
Disposals
365.2
Geelong Cats
366.9
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
43.7
Geelong Cats
51.0
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1571 vs 1514), but the market favours Geelong Cats (@1.56).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
88%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 28 points
Predicted total: 173 · Line: +27.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.13
Team Effectiveness
-0.01
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.