AI Referee Insights
Matt Stevic officiated this match (231 career games). The combined score of 171 points was 7 points above Matt Stevic's career average of 164. Despite Matt Stevic's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Brisbane Lions prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Brisbane Lions defied the model's 66% prediction for Collingwood — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.7 but the actual margin was 29 points. Total score prediction of 166 was close to the actual 171 — within 5 points. Brisbane Lions trailed 43–30 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 71–100. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 161.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
66%
Brisbane Lions
34%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Brisbane Lions. Brisbane Lions are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Collingwood counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Brisbane Lions carry a 94-point ELO rating advantage (1793 vs 1699). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 2.7 points with a combined total of 166.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.65
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.0%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -6.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.0%
Total Points
Over 161.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | WWLLL | 65.6 |
Brisbane Lions | WWWLL | 90.8 |
Avg Conceded
78.4
Collingwood
74.8
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
-12.8
Collingwood
16.0
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
335.6
Collingwood
383.2
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
Collingwood
50.0
Brisbane Lions
Each team's win rate when Matt Stevic umpires their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Matt Stevic officiates — Collingwood 24W–19L (56%) and Brisbane Lions 9W–8L (53%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. Their games average 164.3 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~58% league avg), which could give Collingwood an additional edge at home. Full umpire panel: Matt Stevic, Curtis Deboy, Hayden Meyer.
Avg Total
164.3 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Brisbane Lions hold the ELO advantage (1793 vs 1699), but the market favours Collingwood (@1.65).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Collingwood predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 166 · Line: +2.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.13
Team Effectiveness
-0.49
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.