# Collingwood v Brisbane Lions — AFL Semi Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 71 – 100 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions fight back to roar past Collingwood._

Half time: 43 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 66% / Brisbane Lions 34% · MCG · Sat, 20 Sept, 05:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Mason Cox (7' ×2 1st), Jamie Elliott (34' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Tim Membrey (42' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Lachie Schultz (47'), Patrick Lipinski (52'), Dan Houston (59') · Brisbane Lions: Josh Dunkley (10'), Zac Bailey (15' Tipped ⚡), Logan Morris (20' Tipped ⚡), Ty Gallop (22' ×3), Will Ashcroft (65' ×2), Cam Rayner (74' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Hugh McCluggage (78'), Charlie Cameron (80' Tipped ⚡), Kai Lohmann (85' Tipped ⚡), Dayne Zorko (90')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 66% | Lost |
| Brisbane Lions | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 29 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Semi Finals 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 71–100 Brisbane Lions in AFL Semi Finals at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions accounted for Collingwood 100–71 at MCG. Brisbane Lions led 75–58 at three-quarter time and held on.

Brisbane Lions controlled the midfield, winning 45 clearances to 36. Brisbane Lions racked up the footy, finishing with 381 disposals to 312. Brisbane Lions used the ball more cleanly, hitting targets at 71.5%. Brisbane Lions pressed forward more often, going inside 50 56 times to 51.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 7 | 36 | 15 | 13 | 71 |
| Brisbane Lions | 27 | 3 | 45 | 25 | 100 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 312 | Disposals | **381** |
| 120 | Contested poss. | **134** |
| 36 | Clearances | **45** |
| 51 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| 77 | Marks | **113** |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| 65 | Tackles | **73** |
| **44** | Hit-outs | 43 |
| 72 | Intercepts | **76** |
| 65.5% | Disposal eff. | **71.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Brisbane Lions defied the model's 66% prediction for Collingwood, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.7 but the actual margin was 29 points. Total score prediction of 166 was close to the actual 171, within 5 points. Brisbane Lions trailed 43–30 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 71–100. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 161.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Matt Stevic officiated this match (233 career games). The combined score of 171 points was 7 points above Matt Stevic's career average of 164. Despite Matt Stevic's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Brisbane Lions prevailed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.65 (edge +5.0%) — model probability 65.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 161.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 3 · Predicted total: 166

### Umpire Indicator — Balanced

**Matt Stevic** — 233 career games since 2012 · panel: Matt Stevic, Curtis Deboy, Hayden Meyer.

| Team | Record under Matt Stevic | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 24W–19L | 56% |
| Brisbane Lions | 9W–8L | 53% |

Avg total: 164.2 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Matt Stevic, Collingwood 24W–19L (56%) and Brisbane Lions 9W–8L (53%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~58% league avg). Panel: Matt Stevic, Curtis Deboy, Hayden Meyer.

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 224 · 157 | 222 · 188 |
| Goal Assists | 5.1/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 86/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.9/g | 18.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.5/g | 8.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 66.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 54 · 69 | 74 · 72 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 162/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.6/g | 25.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.1% | 69.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 18 | 26 · 25 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 116/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.7/g | 12.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.9% | 80.2% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.36/g (lg 4.44) -2% · Midfielders 2.22/g (lg 2.39) -7% · Key Forwards 3.31/g (lg 3.63) -9%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.51) -6% · Key Forwards 3.3/g (lg 3.63) -9% · Defenders 1.12/g (lg 1.24) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 56 in 24g | 20/10g (1·4·3·2·1·1·0·2·2·4) | 20/13g | 214/133g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 77' 81' 93' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 36 in 21g | 13/10g (1·2·2·2·2·1·2·0·1·0) | 23/11g | 154/92g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 30 in 22g | 14/10g (2·2·2·2·2·1·1·2·0·0) | 17/11g | 55/29g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' 57' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 17 in 24g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·3·1·0·1·0·1) | 7/7g | 33/58g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 15 in 22g | 8/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·1·3) | 9/18g | 105/181g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 12 in 15g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 6/9g | 35/30g | 66% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 9 in 24g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/17g | 51/153g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (0·2·2·1·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 25/14g | 121/113g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 9 in 22g | 6/10g (2·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/11g | 28/57g | 44% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 7 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/8g | 38/69g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 7 in 24g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 6/22g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 6 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 40/56g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 7/29g | 24% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 5 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/15g | 15/138g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 4 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 3/29g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 3 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 30/86g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 80/183g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/12g | 80/84g | 34% | — | 🏉 7' 75' |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 4/27g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 39/112g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/75g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/17g | 56/163g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 51 in 24g | 21/10g (1·2·1·0·6·3·4·1·1·2) | 6/3g | 15/7g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 37 in 24g | 17/10g (0·5·1·1·2·2·2·0·1·3) | 14/12g | 18/17g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 33 in 25g | 16/10g (0·2·1·3·2·0·2·2·3·1) | 16/12g | 16/19g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' 97' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 27 in 23g | 13/10g (3·3·1·0·0·0·3·2·1·0) | 29/17g | 41/29g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 24 in 24g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/12g | 14/15g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 17 in 16g | 17/10g (3·1·0·2·1·1·2·2·2·3) | 3/3g | 10/6g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 85' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 13 in 25g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 9/15g | 14/21g | 48% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 12 in 25g | 7/10g (1·1·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 6/9g | 32% | — | 🏉 65' 88' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 11 in 25g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/4g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 9 in 23g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/14g | 6/20g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 7 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 4/10g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 6 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/18g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 6 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/13g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 6 in 25g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 7/14g | 8/20g | 24% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 4/13g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 14/20g | 15/25g | 6% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/13g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/18g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Marshall | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — | 🏉 22' 68' 83' |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 1/23g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 28.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 27 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos | 24.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 26 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 22.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 0 ✓ |
| Jordan De Goey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.94 | 89% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 19.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 18 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 18.5 | $1.95 | 47% | 18 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 13 ✓ |
| Dan Houston | 16.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 12 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 16.5 | $1.78 | 56% | 14 ✓ |
| Harry Perryman | 15.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 14 ✓ |
| Brayden Maynard | 15.5 | $2.00 | 49% | 16 ✗ |
| Lachie Schultz ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 13 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron | 14.5 | $1.87 | 37% | 15 ✗ |
| Isaac Quaynor | 13.5 | $1.77 | 50% | 15 ✗ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh McCluggage | 28.5 | $1.60 | 67% | 37 ✗ |
| Will Ashcroft | 28.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 20 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 24.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 19 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 24.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 28 ✗ |
| Zac Bailey | 21.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 21.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 18 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 20.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 11 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 20.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 25 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 17.5 | $1.90 | 43% | 14 ✓ |
| Cam Rayner | 15.5 | $1.90 | 48% | 10 ✓ |
| Harris Andrews | 14.5 | $1.78 | 53% | 18 ✗ |
| Ryan Lester | 13.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 14 ✗ |
| Sam Marshall | 13.5 | $1.77 | 44% | 17 ✗ |
| Callum Ah Chee | 12.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)