# Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions — AFL Preliminary Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 75 – 122 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions roar past Geelong Cats._

Half time: 36 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 80% / Brisbane Lions 20% · MCG · Sat, 27 Sept, 02:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Oliver Dempsey (15' ×4 1st), Oisin Mullin (24'), Shannon Neale (50' Tipped ⚡), Brad Close (55'), Max Holmes (74'), Mark Blicavs (67'), Shaun Mannagh (96' Tipped ⚡) · Brisbane Lions: Kai Lohmann (21' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Logan Morris (35' Tipped ⚡), Charlie Cameron (37' ×4), Hugh McCluggage (44' ×4), Levi Ashcroft (51'), Zac Bailey (68' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Lachie Neale (91'), Cam Rayner (69' Tipped ⚡), Will Ashcroft (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 80% | Lost |
| Brisbane Lions | 20% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 26.7 predicted → 47 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Preliminary Finals 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 75–122 Brisbane Lions in AFL Preliminary Finals at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions ran away from Geelong Cats 122–75 at MCG. Leading 63–44 at three-quarter time, Brisbane Lions pulled clear late.

Brisbane Lions's ruck division got on top, winning 64 hit-outs to 46. Brisbane Lions controlled the midfield, winning 52 clearances to 37. Brisbane Lions racked up the footy, finishing with 361 disposals to 319. Geelong Cats used the ball more cleanly, hitting targets at 72.1%. Brisbane Lions pressed forward more often, going inside 50 66 times to 51. Brisbane Lions were cleaner inside forward 50 with 13 marks to 9. Brisbane Lions brought the pressure, laying 76 tackles to 51.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 15 | 21 | 8 | 31 | 75 |
| Brisbane Lions | 12 | 24 | 27 | 59 | 122 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Disposals | **361** |
| 141 | Contested poss. | **149** |
| 37 | Clearances | **52** |
| 51 | Inside 50s | **66** |
| 70 | Marks | **93** |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| 51 | Tackles | **76** |
| 46 | Hit-outs | **64** |
| 57 | Intercepts | **61** |
| **72.1%** | Disposal eff. | 68.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Brisbane Lions defied the model's 80% prediction for Geelong Cats, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 26.7 but the actual margin was 47 points. The game's 197 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 180. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 176.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.54 (edge +14.7%) — model probability 79.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 27 · Predicted total: 180

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Geelong Cats | 101 – 123 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2026 | R10 | Brisbane Lions | 76 – 117 | Geelong Cats |
| 2025 | WF | Geelong Cats | 112 – 74 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | R15 | Geelong Cats | 51 – 92 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | R3 | Brisbane Lions | 70 – 61 | Geelong Cats |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 287 · 188 | 229 · 196 |
| Goal Assists | 6.8/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 87/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.2/g | 18.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 12/g | 8.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68% | 66.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 90 · 58 | 78 · 74 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 162/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.6/g | 25.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.6/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 69.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 27 | 30 · 26 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 105/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.6/g | 12.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.3% | 80.2% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.38/g (lg 4.44) -1% · Midfielders 2.19/g (lg 2.39) -8% · Key Forwards 3.29/g (lg 3.63) -9%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.82/g (lg 3.63) +5% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0% · Forwards 4.23/g (lg 4.44) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 88 in 25g | 40/10g (4·1·5·11·6·4·0·4·2·3) | 41/20g | 127/45g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 96% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 43 in 24g | 25/10g (1·3·5·0·4·3·3·4·1·1) | 2/4g | 10/10g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 34 in 23g | 15/10g (1·0·2·2·2·0·3·2·0·3) | 7/8g | 43/27g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 31 in 25g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·3·0) | 5/5g | 18/15g | 74% | — | 🏉 15' 90' 93' 95' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 30 in 22g | 11/10g (0·2·0·2·0·1·1·2·0·3) | 21/21g | 58/66g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 30 in 22g | 15/10g (1·1·3·0·0·3·3·2·0·2) | 1/3g | 14/9g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 96' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 18 in 25g | 7/10g (2·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 24/32g | 62% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 15 in 20g | 9/10g (2·1·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/14g | 6/20g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 14 in 23g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 10/12g | 24/37g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 13 in 25g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/8g | 19/31g | 46% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 12 in 12g | 12/10g (0·1·0·2·0·4·2·1·1·1) | 13/14g | 35/33g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 10 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 9/22g | 23/79g | 30% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 8 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/9g | 9/16g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/13g | 25/52g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 5 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 4/43g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 4 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/10g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 3/25g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/10g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/39g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 1/9g | 4% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/37g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 8/40g | 0% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 52 in 25g | 21/10g (2·1·0·6·3·4·1·1·2·1) | 9/4g | 16/8g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 39 in 25g | 19/10g (5·1·1·2·2·2·0·1·3·2) | 5/11g | 20/18g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' 80' 85' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 35 in 26g | 18/10g (2·1·3·2·0·2·2·3·1·2) | 14/12g | 18/20g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 28 in 24g | 11/10g (3·1·0·0·0·3·2·1·0·1) | 29/19g | 42/30g | 70% | — | 🏉 37' 85' 89' 62' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 24 in 25g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 9/14g | 14/16g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 18 in 17g | 15/10g (1·0·2·1·1·2·2·2·3·1) | 5/6g | 11/7g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 82' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 14 in 26g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 6/15g | 15/22g | 48% | — | 🏉 44' 73' 87' 91' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 14 in 26g | 8/10g (1·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 2/5g | 8/10g | 32% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 11 in 26g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/5g | 36% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 7 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/11g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 7 in 26g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 7/14g | 9/21g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/21g | 11/32g | 30% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 6 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/19g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 6 in 26g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/14g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 4 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 13/21g | 16/26g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/14g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (0·0·0·1·3) | 0/1g | 3/2g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/14g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 2/19g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Marshall | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/18g | 1/24g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 27.5 | $1.94 | 53% | 29 ✗ |
| Max Holmes | 24.5 | $1.92 | 55% | 33 ✗ |
| Patrick Dangerfield ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.75 | 74% | 10 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers | 19.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 16 ✓ |
| Tom Atkins | 18.5 | $1.93 | 51% | 20 ✗ |
| Zach Guthrie | 17.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 16 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 16.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 16 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 15.5 | $2.00 | 39% | 19 ✗ |
| Jack Bowes | 14.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 16 ✗ |
| Mark Blicavs | 13.5 | $1.95 | 43% | 11 ✓ |
| Jeremy Cameron | 13.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 8 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries | 12.5 | $2.00 | 43% | 23 ✗ |
| Tyson Stengle | 12.5 | $1.89 | 55% | 12 ✓ |
| Jhye Clark ⚡ Under | 12.5 | $1.87 | 82% | 14 ✗ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | 27.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 32 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.94 | 70% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 23.5 | $1.89 | 42% | 16 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 22.5 | $1.92 | 34% | 26 ✗ |
| Zac Bailey | 21.5 | $1.77 | 60% | 23 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 21.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 17 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 20.5 | $1.92 | 53% | 29 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 15.5 | $1.87 | 34% | 17 ✗ |
| Harris Andrews | 15.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 18 ✗ |
| Cam Rayner | 14.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 11 ✓ |
| Callum Ah Chee | 13.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 17 ✗ |
| Ryan Lester | 13.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 14 ✗ |
| Sam Marshall | 13.5 | $1.85 | 46% | 4 ✓ |
| Bruce Reville ⚡ Under | 12.5 | $1.85 | 67% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)