AI Game Review
Brisbane Lions defied the model's 80% prediction for Geelong Cats, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 26.7 but the actual margin was 47 points. The game's 197 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 180. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 176.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
80%
Brisbane Lions
20%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Brisbane Lions. Brisbane Lions are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Geelong Cats counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 26.7 points with a combined total of 180.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.54
Lost ✗
Edge
+14.7%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -11.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+14.7%
Total Points
Over 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | W W W L L | 87.7 |
Brisbane Lions | W W L L L | 85.6 |
Avg Conceded
79.2
Geelong Cats
96.0
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
17.3
Geelong Cats
25.3
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
340.4
Geelong Cats
358.4
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
49.6
Geelong Cats
56.2
Brisbane Lions
ELO–Market Disagreement
Brisbane Lions hold the ELO advantage (1495 vs 1488), but the market favours Geelong Cats (@1.54).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
80%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 27 points
Predicted total: 180 · Line: +26.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.14
Team Effectiveness
-0.16
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.