AFL Tipster Accuracy & Strike Rate

How Accuracy Is Measured

Accuracy is the percentage of resolved tips that won. Pending tips (matches not yet played) are excluded. Pushes and voids (e.g. line withdrawn) are treated as neither wins nor losses. Across the blind 2025 season Alphr published 648 AFL tips at a 73.0% combined strike rate, the head-to-head model alone reached 81.9% with a ROC-AUC of 0.8808.

Accuracy by Market

• Head-to-head: 81.9% (177 / 216), ROC-AUC 0.8808, see expert tips.
• Margin direction: 76.9% (166 / 216), MAE 22.9 pts, see margin tips.
• Over/under (totals): 60.2% (130 / 216), MAE 22.1 pts, see over/under tips.

Why a Blind Test Matters

These numbers come from a true out-of-sample test: the model never saw any 2025 data during training (it trained on 2012–2023 and tuned on 2024). That is the difference between a backtested marketing figure and a genuine estimate of forward-looking skill. Read the full validation methodology on the model validation page.

Compare With Other Sports

See the cross-sport overall accuracy page for Alphr's AFL and NRL strike rates side-by-side, and the NRL hub for NRL-specific tipping accuracy.