# AFL Round 9 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 9 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 9 at a glance
- 9 matches · 22W–5L on 27 settled picks (81% strike rate) · best value +31.7% edge

## Round 9 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon v Sydney Swans | Essendon @ $2.30 | Essendon 75% | WON |
| St Kilda v Carlton | Carlton @ $1.58 | Carlton 86% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v GWS GIANTS | Geelong Cats @ $1.40 | Geelong Cats 93% | LOST |
| Melbourne v Hawthorn | Hawthorn @ $1.25 | Hawthorn 93% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Western Bulldogs | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.80 | Gold Coast SUNS 63% | WON |
| Richmond v West Coast Eagles | Richmond @ $1.44 | Richmond 76% | WON |
| North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $1.09 | Brisbane Lions 93% | WON |
| Fremantle v Collingwood | Collingwood @ $1.77 | Collingwood 52% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $1.38 | Adelaide Crows 52% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Essendon v Sydney Swans
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 75.2% / Sydney Swans 24.8%
- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $2.30 (edge +31.7%) — model probability 75.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +31.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 15 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r9-essendon-v-sydney-swans

### St Kilda v Carlton
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 13.7% / Carlton 86.3%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.58 (edge +23.0%) — model probability 86.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 163.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 25 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r9-st-kilda-v-carlton

### Geelong Cats v GWS GIANTS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · GMHBA Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 93.4% / GWS GIANTS 6.6%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.40 (edge +22.0%) — model probability 93.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -16.5 @ $1.91 (edge +22.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 174.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 36 · Predicted total: 189
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r9-geelong-cats-v-gws-giants

### Melbourne v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 6.9% / Hawthorn 93.1%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.25 (edge +13.1%) — model probability 93.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +23.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 45 · Predicted total: 153
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r9-melbourne-v-hawthorn

### Gold Coast SUNS v Western Bulldogs
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · TIO Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 63.4% / Western Bulldogs 36.6%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.80 (edge +7.9%) — model probability 63.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 8 · Predicted total: 187
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r9-gold-coast-suns-v-western-bulldogs

### Richmond v West Coast Eagles
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 75.8% / West Coast Eagles 24.2%
- **Head to Head:** Richmond to win @ $1.44 (edge +6.3%) — model probability 75.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 9 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r9-richmond-v-west-coast-eagles

### North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Ninja Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 7.1% / Brisbane Lions 92.9%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.09 (edge +1.1%) — model probability 92.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 34 · Predicted total: 145
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r9-north-melbourne-v-brisbane-lions

### Fremantle v Collingwood
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 47.9% / Collingwood 52.1%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.77 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 52.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 163.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 7 · Predicted total: 163
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r9-fremantle-v-collingwood

### Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 48.4% / Adelaide Crows 51.6%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.38 (edge -20.9%) — model probability 51.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +16.5 @ $1.91 (edge -20.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 5 · Predicted total: 153
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r9-port-adelaide-v-adelaide-crows

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/8 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/8.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/10 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/10.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/9
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Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC