# AFL Round 4 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 4 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 4 at a glance
- 8 matches · 17W–7L on 24 settled picks (71% strike rate) · best value +23.6% edge

## Round 4 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle v Western Bulldogs | Fremantle @ $1.65 | Fremantle 84% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Melbourne | Geelong Cats @ $1.22 | Geelong Cats 98% | WON |
| North Melbourne v Sydney Swans | North Melbourne @ $2.22 | North Melbourne 61% | LOST |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Adelaide Crows | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.75 | Gold Coast SUNS 51% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v West Coast Eagles | GWS GIANTS @ $1.02 | GWS GIANTS 98% | WON |
| Richmond v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $1.07 | Brisbane Lions 93% | WON |
| Collingwood v Carlton | Collingwood @ $1.42 | Collingwood 64% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v St Kilda | St Kilda @ $2.68 | St Kilda 56% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 84.2% / Western Bulldogs 15.8%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.65 (edge +23.6%) — model probability 84.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 33 · Predicted total: 178
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r4-fremantle-v-western-bulldogs

### Geelong Cats v Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · GMHBA Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 98.1% / Melbourne 1.9%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.22 (edge +16.2%) — model probability 98.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -28.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 63 · Predicted total: 193
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r4-geelong-cats-v-melbourne

### North Melbourne v Sydney Swans
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 60.9% / Sydney Swans 39.1%
- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $2.22 (edge +15.8%) — model probability 60.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 17 · Predicted total: 194
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r4-north-melbourne-v-sydney-swans

### Gold Coast SUNS v Adelaide Crows
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · People First Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 50.8% / Adelaide Crows 49.2%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.75 (edge -6.4%) — model probability 50.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 6 · Predicted total: 163
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r4-gold-coast-suns-v-adelaide-crows

### GWS GIANTS v West Coast Eagles
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · ENGIE Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 97.6% / West Coast Eagles 2.4%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.02 (edge -40.0%) — model probability 97.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -65.5 @ $1.91 (edge -40.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 70 · Predicted total: 193
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r4-gws-giants-v-west-coast-eagles

### Richmond v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 6.7% / Brisbane Lions 93.3%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.07 (edge -20.0%) — model probability 93.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +47.5 @ $1.91 (edge -20.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 50 · Predicted total: 163
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r4-richmond-v-brisbane-lions

### Collingwood v Carlton
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 63.7% / Carlton 36.3%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.42 (edge -6.7%) — model probability 63.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 26 · Predicted total: 150
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r4-collingwood-v-carlton

### Port Adelaide v St Kilda
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 43.8% / St Kilda 56.2%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $2.68 (edge +18.9%) — model probability 56.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 4 · Predicted total: 157
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r4-port-adelaide-v-st-kilda

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/3 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/3.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/5 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/5.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/4
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC