# AFL Preliminary Finals 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Preliminary Finals of the 2025 season — 2 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Preliminary Finals at a glance
- 2 matches · 4W–2L on 6 settled picks (67% strike rate) · best value +23.5% edge

## Preliminary Finals predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats v Hawthorn | Geelong Cats @ $1.56 | Geelong Cats 88% | WON |
| Collingwood v Brisbane Lions | Collingwood @ $1.65 | Collingwood 66% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Geelong Cats v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Preliminary Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 87.6% / Hawthorn 12.4%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.56 (edge +23.5%) — model probability 87.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 28 · Predicted total: 173
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-pf-geelong-cats-v-hawthorn

### Collingwood v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Preliminary Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 65.6% / Brisbane Lions 34.4%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.65 (edge +5.0%) — model probability 65.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 161.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 3 · Predicted total: 166
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-pf-collingwood-v-brisbane-lions

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/26 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/26.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/28 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/28.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/27
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC