# AFL Semi Finals 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Semi Finals of the 2025 season — 2 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Semi Finals at a glance
- 2 matches · 4W–2L on 6 settled picks (67% strike rate) · best value +23.0% edge

## Semi Finals predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows v Hawthorn | Adelaide Crows @ $1.75 | Adelaide Crows 80% | LOST |
| Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS | Brisbane Lions @ $1.60 | Brisbane Lions 75% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Adelaide Crows v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Semi Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 80.1% / Hawthorn 19.9%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.75 (edge +23.0%) — model probability 80.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 11 · Predicted total: 175
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-sf-adelaide-crows-v-hawthorn

### Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Gabba · Semi Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 74.6% / Gold Coast SUNS 25.4%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.60 (edge +12.1%) — model probability 74.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 9 · Predicted total: 163
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-sf-brisbane-lions-v-gold-coast-suns

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/25 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/25.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/27 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/27.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/26
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC