# AFL Finals Week 1 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Finals Week 1 of the 2025 season — 4 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Finals Week 1 at a glance
- 4 matches · 8W–4L on 12 settled picks (67% strike rate) · best value +11.2% edge

## Finals Week 1 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows v Collingwood | Collingwood @ $2.10 | Collingwood 59% | WON |
| Fremantle v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $2.30 | Gold Coast SUNS 54% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn | Hawthorn @ $2.05 | Hawthorn 54% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions | Geelong Cats @ $1.75 | Geelong Cats 53% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Adelaide Crows v Collingwood
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 41.1% / Collingwood 58.9%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $2.10 (edge +11.2%) — model probability 58.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 3 · Predicted total: 161
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-qf-adelaide-crows-v-collingwood

### Fremantle v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 45.8% / Gold Coast SUNS 54.2%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $2.30 (edge +10.8%) — model probability 54.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 158.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 3 · Predicted total: 176
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-qf-fremantle-v-gold-coast-suns

### GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · ENGIE Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 45.9% / Hawthorn 54.1%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $2.05 (edge +5.3%) — model probability 54.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 6 · Predicted total: 152
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-qf-gws-giants-v-hawthorn

### Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 52.7% / Brisbane Lions 47.3%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.75 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 52.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 1 · Predicted total: 173
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-qf-geelong-cats-v-brisbane-lions

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/24 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/24.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/26 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/26.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/25
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC