# AFL Round 23 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 23 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 23 at a glance
- 9 matches · 19W–8L on 27 settled picks (70% strike rate) · best value +48.8% edge

## Round 23 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon v St Kilda | Essendon @ $5.00 | Essendon 69% | LOST |
| Fremantle v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $2.18 | Brisbane Lions 84% | WON |
| North Melbourne v Richmond | North Melbourne @ $1.72 | North Melbourne 90% | WON |
| Carlton v Port Adelaide | Carlton @ $1.44 | Carlton 89% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v Collingwood | Adelaide Crows @ $1.50 | Adelaide Crows 76% | WON |
| Hawthorn v Melbourne | Hawthorn @ $1.33 | Hawthorn 80% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v GWS GIANTS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.36 | Gold Coast SUNS 68% | LOST |
| Western Bulldogs v West Coast Eagles | Western Bulldogs @ $1.01 | Western Bulldogs 98% | WON |
| Sydney Swans v Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats @ $1.36 | Geelong Cats 73% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Essendon v St Kilda
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 68.8% / St Kilda 31.2%
- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $5.00 (edge +48.8%) — model probability 68.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +30.5 @ $1.91 (edge +48.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 3 · Predicted total: 157
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r23-essendon-v-st-kilda

### Fremantle v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 15.6% / Brisbane Lions 84.4%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.18 (edge +38.5%) — model probability 84.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +38.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 30 · Predicted total: 153
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r23-fremantle-v-brisbane-lions

### North Melbourne v Richmond
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Ninja Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 89.8% / Richmond 10.2%
- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $1.72 (edge +31.7%) — model probability 89.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +31.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 37 · Predicted total: 176
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r23-north-melbourne-v-richmond

### Carlton v Port Adelaide
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 88.9% / Port Adelaide 11.1%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.44 (edge +19.5%) — model probability 88.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 39 · Predicted total: 177
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r23-carlton-v-port-adelaide

### Adelaide Crows v Collingwood
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 76.5% / Collingwood 23.5%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.50 (edge +9.8%) — model probability 76.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 156.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 15 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r23-adelaide-crows-v-collingwood

### Hawthorn v Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 80.2% / Melbourne 19.8%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.33 (edge +5.0%) — model probability 80.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -19.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 12 · Predicted total: 153
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r23-hawthorn-v-melbourne

### Gold Coast SUNS v GWS GIANTS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · People First Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 68.4% / GWS GIANTS 31.6%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.36 (edge -5.1%) — model probability 68.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -18.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 6 · Predicted total: 166
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r23-gold-coast-suns-v-gws-giants

### Western Bulldogs v West Coast Eagles
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 98.2% / West Coast Eagles 1.8%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.01 (edge -90.0%) — model probability 98.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -76.5 @ $1.91 (edge -90.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 189.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 91 · Predicted total: 203
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r23-western-bulldogs-v-west-coast-eagles

### Sydney Swans v Geelong Cats
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · SCG · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 26.9% / Geelong Cats 73.1%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.36 (edge -50.0%) — model probability 73.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge -50.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 21 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r23-sydney-swans-v-geelong-cats

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/22 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/22.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/24 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/24.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC