# AFL Round 21 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 21 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 21 at a glance
- 9 matches · 21W–6L on 27 settled picks (78% strike rate) · best value +20.9% edge

## Round 21 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $2.68 | Brisbane Lions 58% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v Hawthorn | Hawthorn @ $2.68 | Hawthorn 53% | LOST |
| Western Bulldogs v GWS GIANTS | Western Bulldogs @ $1.40 | Western Bulldogs 79% | WON |
| Fremantle v Carlton | Fremantle @ $1.10 | Fremantle 71% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Port Adelaide | Geelong Cats @ $1.03 | Geelong Cats 94% | WON |
| St Kilda v North Melbourne | St Kilda @ $1.28 | St Kilda 65% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Richmond | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.03 | Gold Coast SUNS 98% | WON |
| Sydney Swans v Essendon | Sydney Swans @ $1.12 | Sydney Swans 88% | WON |
| Melbourne v West Coast Eagles | Melbourne @ $1.06 | Melbourne 97% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Collingwood v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 41.8% / Brisbane Lions 58.2%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.68 (edge +20.9%) — model probability 58.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 8 · Predicted total: 161
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r21-collingwood-v-brisbane-lions

### Adelaide Crows v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 46.8% / Hawthorn 53.2%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $2.68 (edge +15.9%) — model probability 53.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 162.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 4 · Predicted total: 157
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r21-adelaide-crows-v-hawthorn

### Western Bulldogs v GWS GIANTS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 79.5% / GWS GIANTS 20.5%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.40 (edge +8.0%) — model probability 79.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -16.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 17 · Predicted total: 175
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r21-western-bulldogs-v-gws-giants

### Fremantle v Carlton
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 71.3% / Carlton 28.7%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.10 (edge -19.6%) — model probability 71.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -37.5 @ $1.91 (edge -19.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 151.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 23 · Predicted total: 155
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r21-fremantle-v-carlton

### Geelong Cats v Port Adelaide
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · GMHBA Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 93.8% / Port Adelaide 6.2%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.03 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 93.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -59.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 61 · Predicted total: 205
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r21-geelong-cats-v-port-adelaide

### St Kilda v North Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 65.4% / North Melbourne 34.6%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.28 (edge -12.7%) — model probability 65.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -24.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 15 · Predicted total: 171
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r21-st-kilda-v-north-melbourne

### Gold Coast SUNS v Richmond
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · People First Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 97.5% / Richmond 2.5%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.03 (edge +40.0%) — model probability 97.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +40.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 167.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 94 · Predicted total: 200
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r21-gold-coast-suns-v-richmond

### Sydney Swans v Essendon
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · SCG · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 87.7% / Essendon 12.3%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.12 (edge -1.6%) — model probability 87.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -37.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 139.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 36 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r21-sydney-swans-v-essendon

### Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 96.6% / West Coast Eagles 3.4%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.06 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 96.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne -48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 56 · Predicted total: 200
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r21-melbourne-v-west-coast-eagles

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/20 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/20.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/22 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/22.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/21
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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC