# AFL Round 18 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 18 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 18 at a glance
- 9 matches · 21W–6L on 27 settled picks (78% strike rate) · best value +47.0% edge

## Round 18 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond v Essendon | Richmond @ $3.30 | Richmond 77% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood | Gold Coast SUNS @ $2.05 | Gold Coast SUNS 63% | WON |
| Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $2.55 | Western Bulldogs 50% | WON |
| Melbourne v North Melbourne | Melbourne @ $1.20 | Melbourne 93% | WON |
| Carlton v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $1.18 | Brisbane Lions 88% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats @ $1.72 | Geelong Cats 55% | LOST |
| Port Adelaide v West Coast Eagles | Port Adelaide @ $1.06 | Port Adelaide 73% | WON |
| St Kilda v Sydney Swans | Sydney Swans @ $1.63 | Sydney Swans 88% | WON |
| Fremantle v Hawthorn | Fremantle @ $1.83 | Fremantle 57% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Richmond v Essendon
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 77.3% / Essendon 22.7%
- **Head to Head:** Richmond to win @ $3.30 (edge +47.0%) — model probability 77.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +47.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 162.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 5 · Predicted total: 159
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r18-richmond-v-essendon

### Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · People First Stadium · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 63.3% / Collingwood 36.7%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $2.05 (edge +14.5%) — model probability 63.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 8 · Predicted total: 166
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r18-gold-coast-suns-v-collingwood

### Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 49.7% / Adelaide Crows 50.3%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $2.55 (edge +11.1%) — model probability 50.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 8 · Predicted total: 174
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r18-western-bulldogs-v-adelaide-crows

### Melbourne v North Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 93.3% / North Melbourne 6.7%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.20 (edge +9.9%) — model probability 93.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne -28.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 46 · Predicted total: 190
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r18-melbourne-v-north-melbourne

### Carlton v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 12.0% / Brisbane Lions 88.0%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.18 (edge +3.3%) — model probability 88.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +29.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 37 · Predicted total: 149
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r18-carlton-v-brisbane-lions

### GWS GIANTS v Geelong Cats
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · ENGIE Stadium · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 45.0% / Geelong Cats 55.0%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.72 (edge -3.1%) — model probability 55.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 7 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r18-gws-giants-v-geelong-cats

### Port Adelaide v West Coast Eagles
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 73.3% / West Coast Eagles 26.7%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.06 (edge -21.0%) — model probability 73.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -45.5 @ $1.91 (edge -21.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 22 · Predicted total: 151
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r18-port-adelaide-v-west-coast-eagles

### St Kilda v Sydney Swans
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 11.7% / Sydney Swans 88.3%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.63 (edge +27.0%) — model probability 88.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 34 · Predicted total: 156
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r18-st-kilda-v-sydney-swans

### Fremantle v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 57.4% / Hawthorn 42.6%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.83 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 57.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 154.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 6 · Predicted total: 151
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r18-fremantle-v-hawthorn

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/17 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/17.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/19 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/19.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:34 UTC