# AFL Round 17 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 17 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 17 at a glance
- 9 matches · 22W–5L on 27 settled picks (81% strike rate) · best value +20.4% edge

## Round 17 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.33 | Gold Coast SUNS 96% | WON |
| St Kilda v Hawthorn | Hawthorn @ $1.35 | Hawthorn 91% | WON |
| Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide | Brisbane Lions @ $1.20 | Brisbane Lions 92% | WON |
| Sydney Swans v Fremantle | Sydney Swans @ $1.60 | Sydney Swans 67% | WON |
| Carlton v Collingwood | Collingwood @ $1.22 | Collingwood 62% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Richmond | Geelong Cats @ $1.03 | Geelong Cats 98% | WON |
| North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs @ $1.04 | Western Bulldogs 90% | WON |
| West Coast Eagles v GWS GIANTS | GWS GIANTS @ $1.36 | GWS GIANTS 63% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v Melbourne | Adelaide Crows @ $1.20 | Adelaide Crows 71% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Essendon v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 4.4% / Gold Coast SUNS 95.6%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.33 (edge +20.4%) — model probability 95.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +19.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 36 · Predicted total: 159
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r17-essendon-v-gold-coast-suns

### St Kilda v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 9.4% / Hawthorn 90.6%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.35 (edge +16.5%) — model probability 90.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 28 · Predicted total: 160
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r17-st-kilda-v-hawthorn

### Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Gabba · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 91.8% / Port Adelaide 8.2%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.20 (edge +8.4%) — model probability 91.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -26.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 29 · Predicted total: 182
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r17-brisbane-lions-v-port-adelaide

### Sydney Swans v Fremantle
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · SCG · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 66.5% / Fremantle 33.5%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.60 (edge +4.0%) — model probability 66.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 17 · Predicted total: 165
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r17-sydney-swans-v-fremantle

### Carlton v Collingwood
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 38.4% / Collingwood 61.6%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.22 (edge -20.4%) — model probability 61.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +27.5 @ $1.91 (edge -20.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 161.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 32 · Predicted total: 158
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r17-carlton-v-collingwood

### Geelong Cats v Richmond
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · GMHBA Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 98.2% / Richmond 1.8%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.03 (edge +1.1%) — model probability 98.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -59.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 75 · Predicted total: 198
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r17-geelong-cats-v-richmond

### North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 10.5% / Western Bulldogs 89.5%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.04 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 89.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +52.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 57 · Predicted total: 162
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r17-north-melbourne-v-western-bulldogs

### West Coast Eagles v GWS GIANTS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 37.4% / GWS GIANTS 62.6%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.36 (edge -10.9%) — model probability 62.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge -10.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 167.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 3 · Predicted total: 152
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r17-west-coast-eagles-v-gws-giants

### Adelaide Crows v Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 71.3% / Melbourne 28.7%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.20 (edge -12.0%) — model probability 71.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -28.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 10 · Predicted total: 171
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r17-adelaide-crows-v-melbourne

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/16 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/16.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/18 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/18.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:34 UTC