# AFL Round 16 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 16 of the 2025 season — 7 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 16 at a glance
- 7 matches · 17W–4L on 21 settled picks (81% strike rate) · best value +16.1% edge

## Round 16 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs | Sydney Swans @ $2.68 | Sydney Swans 53% | LOST |
| Port Adelaide v Carlton | Port Adelaide @ $1.85 | Port Adelaide 66% | WON |
| Hawthorn v North Melbourne | Hawthorn @ $1.14 | Hawthorn 98% | WON |
| Collingwood v West Coast Eagles | Collingwood @ $1.02 | Collingwood 98% | WON |
| Fremantle v St Kilda | Fremantle @ $1.28 | Fremantle 77% | WON |
| Richmond v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $1.10 | Adelaide Crows 88% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.27 | Gold Coast SUNS 57% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · SCG · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 53.4% / Western Bulldogs 46.6%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $2.68 (edge +16.1%) — model probability 53.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 9 · Predicted total: 159
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r16-sydney-swans-v-western-bulldogs

### Port Adelaide v Carlton
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 65.8% / Carlton 34.2%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.85 (edge +11.7%) — model probability 65.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 158.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 8 · Predicted total: 166
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r16-port-adelaide-v-carlton

### Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · University of Tasmania Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 97.9% / North Melbourne 2.1%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.14 (edge +10.1%) — model probability 97.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -32.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 157.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 61 · Predicted total: 187
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r16-hawthorn-v-north-melbourne

### Collingwood v West Coast Eagles
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 97.6% / West Coast Eagles 2.4%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.02 (edge -40.0%) — model probability 97.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -60.5 @ $1.91 (edge -40.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 174.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 77 · Predicted total: 202
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r16-collingwood-v-west-coast-eagles

### Fremantle v St Kilda
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 76.6% / St Kilda 23.4%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.28 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 76.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -22.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 17 · Predicted total: 163
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r16-fremantle-v-st-kilda

### Richmond v Adelaide Crows
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 12.1% / Adelaide Crows 87.9%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.10 (edge -3.0%) — model probability 87.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +40.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 32 · Predicted total: 163
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r16-richmond-v-adelaide-crows

### Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · People First Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 57.0% / Melbourne 43.0%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.27 (edge -21.8%) — model probability 57.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -22.5 @ $1.91 (edge -21.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 10 · Predicted total: 173
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r16-gold-coast-suns-v-melbourne

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/15 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/15.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/17 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/17.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/16
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Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC