# AFL Round 15 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 15 of the 2025 season — 7 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 15 at a glance
- 7 matches · 18W–3L on 21 settled picks (86% strike rate) · best value +29.4% edge

## Round 15 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton v North Melbourne | North Melbourne @ $4.15 | North Melbourne 53% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $3.30 | Brisbane Lions 55% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS | GWS GIANTS @ $1.91 | GWS GIANTS 65% | WON |
| Fremantle v Essendon | Fremantle @ $1.13 | Fremantle 94% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans | Sydney Swans @ $1.97 | Sydney Swans 55% | WON |
| Collingwood v St Kilda | Collingwood @ $1.16 | Collingwood 91% | WON |
| Western Bulldogs v Richmond | Western Bulldogs @ $1.04 | Western Bulldogs 95% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Carlton v North Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 15
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 46.5% / North Melbourne 53.5%
- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $4.15 (edge +29.4%) — model probability 53.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -24.5 @ $1.91 (edge +29.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 14 · Predicted total: 174
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r15-carlton-v-north-melbourne

### Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · GMHBA Stadium · Round 15
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 45.3% / Brisbane Lions 54.7%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $3.30 (edge +24.4%) — model probability 54.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -18.5 @ $1.91 (edge +24.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 167.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 11 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r15-geelong-cats-v-brisbane-lions

### GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · ENGIE Stadium · Round 15
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 65.4% / Gold Coast SUNS 34.6%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.91 (edge +13.0%) — model probability 65.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 0 · Predicted total: 178
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r15-gws-giants-v-gold-coast-suns

### Fremantle v Essendon
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 15
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 93.7% / Essendon 6.3%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.13 (edge +5.2%) — model probability 93.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -33.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 155.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 53 · Predicted total: 187
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r15-fremantle-v-essendon

### Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 15
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 44.6% / Sydney Swans 55.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.97 (edge +4.7%) — model probability 55.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 6 · Predicted total: 158
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r15-port-adelaide-v-sydney-swans

### Collingwood v St Kilda
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 15
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 90.8% / St Kilda 9.2%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.16 (edge +4.6%) — model probability 90.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -29.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 40 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r15-collingwood-v-st-kilda

### Western Bulldogs v Richmond
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 15
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 95.0% / Richmond 5.0%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.04 (edge -1.2%) — model probability 95.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -53.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 80 · Predicted total: 205
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r15-western-bulldogs-v-richmond

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/14 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/14.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/16 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/16.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/15
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:34 UTC