# AFL Round 14 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 14 of the 2025 season — 7 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 14 at a glance
- 7 matches · 14W–7L on 21 settled picks (67% strike rate) · best value +16.0% edge

## Round 14 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon v Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats @ $1.13 | Geelong Cats 94% | WON |
| Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $1.97 | Adelaide Crows 56% | LOST |
| St Kilda v Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs @ $1.25 | Western Bulldogs 84% | WON |
| Brisbane Lions v GWS GIANTS | Brisbane Lions @ $1.20 | Brisbane Lions 67% | LOST |
| Port Adelaide v Melbourne | Port Adelaide @ $1.85 | Port Adelaide 70% | WON |
| North Melbourne v Fremantle | Fremantle @ $1.13 | Fremantle 94% | WON |
| West Coast Eagles v Carlton | Carlton @ $1.27 | Carlton 79% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Essendon v Geelong Cats
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 5.6% / Geelong Cats 94.4%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.13 (edge +5.9%) — model probability 94.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +36.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 43 · Predicted total: 148
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r14-essendon-v-geelong-cats

### Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · University of Tasmania Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 43.6% / Adelaide Crows 56.4%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.97 (edge +5.6%) — model probability 56.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 157.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 9 · Predicted total: 134
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r14-hawthorn-v-adelaide-crows

### St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 16.3% / Western Bulldogs 83.7%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.25 (edge +3.7%) — model probability 83.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +24.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 27 · Predicted total: 159
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r14-st-kilda-v-western-bulldogs

### Brisbane Lions v GWS GIANTS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Gabba · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 67.1% / GWS GIANTS 32.9%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.20 (edge -16.3%) — model probability 67.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -27.5 @ $1.91 (edge -16.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 3 · Predicted total: 161
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r14-brisbane-lions-v-gws-giants

### Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 70.0% / Melbourne 30.0%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.85 (edge +16.0%) — model probability 70.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 0 · Predicted total: 171
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r14-port-adelaide-v-melbourne

### North Melbourne v Fremantle
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 6.1% / Fremantle 93.9%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.13 (edge +5.4%) — model probability 93.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +36.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 40 · Predicted total: 148
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r14-north-melbourne-v-fremantle

### West Coast Eagles v Carlton
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 21.0% / Carlton 79.0%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.27 (edge +30.0%) — model probability 79.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +23.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 167.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 19 · Predicted total: 148
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r14-west-coast-eagles-v-carlton

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/13 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/13.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/15 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/15.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/14
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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:34 UTC