# AFL Round 13 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 13 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 13 at a glance
- 8 matches · 18W–6L on 24 settled picks (75% strike rate) · best value +34.7% edge

## Round 13 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS v Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide @ $3.50 | Port Adelaide 63% | WON |
| North Melbourne v West Coast Eagles | North Melbourne @ $1.68 | North Melbourne 91% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $2.62 | Brisbane Lions 60% | LOST |
| Richmond v Sydney Swans | Sydney Swans @ $1.50 | Sydney Swans 82% | WON |
| Carlton v Essendon | Carlton @ $1.38 | Carlton 83% | WON |
| Melbourne v Collingwood | Collingwood @ $1.24 | Collingwood 77% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Gold Coast SUNS | Geelong Cats @ $1.42 | Geelong Cats 72% | WON |
| Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn | Western Bulldogs @ $1.33 | Western Bulldogs 66% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### GWS GIANTS v Port Adelaide
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 36.7% / Port Adelaide 63.3%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $3.50 (edge +34.7%) — model probability 63.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -19.5 @ $1.91 (edge +34.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 159.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 2 · Predicted total: 146
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r13-gws-giants-v-port-adelaide

### North Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Hands Oval · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 91.1% / West Coast Eagles 8.9%
- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $1.68 (edge +31.6%) — model probability 91.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +31.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 39 · Predicted total: 174
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r13-north-melbourne-v-west-coast-eagles

### Adelaide Crows v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 40.2% / Brisbane Lions 59.8%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.62 (edge +21.6%) — model probability 59.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 152.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 5 · Predicted total: 146
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r13-adelaide-crows-v-brisbane-lions

### Richmond v Sydney Swans
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 17.9% / Sydney Swans 82.1%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.50 (edge +15.4%) — model probability 82.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 158.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 42 · Predicted total: 142
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r13-richmond-v-sydney-swans

### Carlton v Essendon
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 83.5% / Essendon 16.5%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.38 (edge +11.0%) — model probability 83.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 148.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 6 · Predicted total: 150
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r13-carlton-v-essendon

### Melbourne v Collingwood
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 22.6% / Collingwood 77.4%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.24 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 77.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +23.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 160.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 20 · Predicted total: 143
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r13-melbourne-v-collingwood

### Geelong Cats v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · GMHBA Stadium · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 72.1% / Gold Coast SUNS 27.9%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.42 (edge +1.7%) — model probability 72.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 158.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 20 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r13-geelong-cats-v-gold-coast-suns

### Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 65.9% / Hawthorn 34.1%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.33 (edge -9.3%) — model probability 65.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -20.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 3 · Predicted total: 159
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r13-western-bulldogs-v-hawthorn

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/12 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/12.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/14 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/14.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/13
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Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC