# AFL Round 11 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 11 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 11 at a glance
- 9 matches · 24W–3L on 27 settled picks (89% strike rate) · best value +25.2% edge

## Round 11 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $2.80 | Brisbane Lions 61% | WON |
| Carlton v GWS GIANTS | GWS GIANTS @ $2.40 | GWS GIANTS 65% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Western Bulldogs | Geelong Cats @ $1.83 | Geelong Cats 75% | WON |
| North Melbourne v Collingwood | Collingwood @ $1.25 | Collingwood 96% | WON |
| St Kilda v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.50 | Gold Coast SUNS 81% | WON |
| Melbourne v Sydney Swans | Melbourne @ $1.87 | Melbourne 64% | WON |
| Essendon v Richmond | Essendon @ $1.27 | Essendon 87% | WON |
| Fremantle v Port Adelaide | Fremantle @ $1.33 | Fremantle 69% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v West Coast Eagles | Adelaide Crows @ $1.05 | Adelaide Crows 92% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 39.1% / Brisbane Lions 60.9%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.80 (edge +25.2%) — model probability 60.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +25.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 0 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r11-hawthorn-v-brisbane-lions

### Carlton v GWS GIANTS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 34.5% / GWS GIANTS 65.5%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $2.40 (edge +23.8%) — model probability 65.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 9 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r11-carlton-v-gws-giants

### Geelong Cats v Western Bulldogs
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · GMHBA Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 75.3% / Western Bulldogs 24.8%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.83 (edge +20.6%) — model probability 75.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 174.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 9 · Predicted total: 180
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r11-geelong-cats-v-western-bulldogs

### North Melbourne v Collingwood
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 3.9% / Collingwood 96.1%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.25 (edge +16.1%) — model probability 96.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +25.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 37 · Predicted total: 149
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r11-north-melbourne-v-collingwood

### St Kilda v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 18.6% / Gold Coast SUNS 81.4%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.50 (edge +14.8%) — model probability 81.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 22 · Predicted total: 156
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r11-st-kilda-v-gold-coast-suns

### Melbourne v Sydney Swans
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 63.7% / Sydney Swans 36.3%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.87 (edge +10.2%) — model probability 63.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 167.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 16 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r11-melbourne-v-sydney-swans

### Essendon v Richmond
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 87.1% / Richmond 12.9%
- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $1.27 (edge +8.3%) — model probability 87.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon -24.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 158.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 30 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r11-essendon-v-richmond

### Fremantle v Port Adelaide
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 69.0% / Port Adelaide 31.0%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.33 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 69.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -19.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 15 · Predicted total: 155
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r11-fremantle-v-port-adelaide

### Adelaide Crows v West Coast Eagles
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 91.9% / West Coast Eagles 8.1%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.05 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 91.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -51.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 36 · Predicted total: 191
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r11-adelaide-crows-v-west-coast-eagles

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/10 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/10.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/12 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/12.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:34 UTC