# AFL Round 1 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 1 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 1 at a glance
- 9 matches · 22W–5L on 27 settled picks (81% strike rate) · best value +21.5% edge

## Round 1 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions | Sydney Swans @ $2.18 | Sydney Swans 67% | LOST |
| Collingwood v Port Adelaide | Collingwood @ $1.58 | Collingwood 84% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Fremantle | Geelong Cats @ $1.42 | Geelong Cats 91% | WON |
| Hawthorn v Essendon | Hawthorn @ $1.30 | Hawthorn 97% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v St Kilda | Adelaide Crows @ $1.30 | Adelaide Crows 95% | WON |
| Melbourne v GWS GIANTS | Melbourne @ $2.35 | Melbourne 56% | LOST |
| Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne | Western Bulldogs @ $1.36 | Western Bulldogs 80% | WON |
| West Coast Eagles v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.58 | Gold Coast SUNS 56% | WON |
| Richmond v Carlton | Carlton @ $1.05 | Carlton 61% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · SCG · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 67.4% / Brisbane Lions 32.6%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $2.18 (edge +21.5%) — model probability 67.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 9 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r1-sydney-swans-v-brisbane-lions

### Collingwood v Port Adelaide
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 84.3% / Port Adelaide 15.7%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.58 (edge +21.0%) — model probability 84.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 18 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r1-collingwood-v-port-adelaide

### Geelong Cats v Fremantle
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · GMHBA Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 90.7% / Fremantle 9.3%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.42 (edge +20.2%) — model probability 90.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -16.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 25 · Predicted total: 181
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r1-geelong-cats-v-fremantle

### Hawthorn v Essendon
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 97.1% / Essendon 2.9%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.30 (edge +20.2%) — model probability 97.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -22.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 48 · Predicted total: 195
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r1-hawthorn-v-essendon

### Adelaide Crows v St Kilda
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 95.3% / St Kilda 4.7%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.30 (edge +18.3%) — model probability 95.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 42 · Predicted total: 176
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r1-adelaide-crows-v-st-kilda

### Melbourne v GWS GIANTS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 56.0% / GWS GIANTS 44.0%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $2.35 (edge +13.4%) — model probability 56.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 155.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 3 · Predicted total: 162
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r1-melbourne-v-gws-giants

### Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 79.9% / North Melbourne 20.1%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.36 (edge +6.4%) — model probability 79.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -20.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 25 · Predicted total: 179
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r1-western-bulldogs-v-north-melbourne

### West Coast Eagles v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 44.4% / Gold Coast SUNS 55.6%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.58 (edge -7.6%) — model probability 55.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 7 · Predicted total: 171
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r1-west-coast-eagles-v-gold-coast-suns

### Richmond v Carlton
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 38.5% / Carlton 61.5%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.05 (edge -33.8%) — model probability 61.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +48.5 @ $1.91 (edge -33.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 10 · Predicted total: 158
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r1-richmond-v-carlton

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/0 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/0.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/2 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/2.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/1
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Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC